OptionProbability
2026
Before 2025
First half of 2025
Second half of 2025
2027
99
0
Rob Jetten
Caroline van der Plas
Lilianne Ploumen
Edith Schippers
Pieter Omtzigt
Sophie Hermans
Jesse Klaver
Sigrid Kaag
Mona Keizer
Joost Eerdmans
Dilan Yesilgöz
Frans Timmermans
Ahmed Aboutaleb
Henri Bontenbal
Geert Wilders
Ronald Plasterk
Fleur Agema
Johan Remkes
Mark Harbers
Mariëlle Paul
Carola Schouten
Kim Putters
Martin Bosma
Fred Teeven
Hans Hoogervorst
Marnix van Rij
Richard van Zwol
Rita Verdonk
Mark Rutte
Ruben Brekelmans
Other
VVD will be among the 3 biggest parties
VVD will be among the 4 biggest parties
PVV will get 29 seats or less
50Plus gets at least 1 seat
D66 will be in Top 3 Biggest Parties
At least 1 party leader resigns
D66 leader becomes Prime Minister
Housing will be the biggest topic in the campaigns
No cabinet before municipal election
VVD or BBB will also leave remaining coalition
CDA and JA21 both join the coalition
New general elections before getting a cabinet
Henri Bontenbal becomes Prime Minister
CDA and PvdA/GL will both join coalition
Coalition is formed before 1st of January 2026
PVV leader becomes Prime Minister
Schoof remains Prime Minister in new coalition
Coalition unable to be formed, triggers new election
PvdA/GL and VVD will both join coalition
PVV will become the biggest party
VVD will pick a new party leader
PvdA/GL will have a new name before election day
VVD will be open for coalition with PVV day after election day
Dutch Elections will be delayed (not 29th of Oct)
Schoof will join a party before election day
Timmermans will be replaced before election day
Migration will be the biggest topic again in the campaigns
CDA will be among the 3 biggest parties
A political candidate will be attack (fysical)
Antifa demonstrates before the election in The Hague
CDA will be among the 2 biggest parties
JA21 will be bigger than D66
100
45
7
2
1
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