Scott News

Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?

Feb 14, 5:26 PMFeb 14, 5:23 PM

61.55%chance

19243815

OptionVotes

YES

1265

790

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.6%chance

10842720

OptionVotes

YES

11866

8858

Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?

Jun 18, 3:15 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

7.75%chance

10834087

OptionVotes

YES

992

612

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.94%chance

10913899

OptionVotes

YES

3238

556

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Mar 26, 7:52 PMMar 27, 6:59 AM

94.59%chance

9710347

OptionVotes

YES

2847

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8110310

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Dec 30, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86464

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Mar 29, 3:08 PMMar 28, 3:59 AM

82.35%chance

392206

OptionVotes

YES

3022

1644

Will an AI ballot measure in any state be endorsed in a Scott Alexander post by the 2026 elections?

Dec 14, 1:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.88%chance

7560

OptionVotes

YES

1274

785

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

1025

893

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

YES

1008

988

Will RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?

Aug 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.45%chance

2110

OptionVotes

YES

10090

9911

Scott News

Prediction markets for Scott

Prediction markets for Scott

Prediction markets for Scott

Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Will an AI ballot measure in any state be endorsed in a Scott Alexander post by the 2026 elections?

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Will RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?

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