Scott News

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.75%chance

10842699

OptionVotes

YES

11769

8879

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

10913611

OptionVotes

YES

2950

638

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7910194

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Mar 26, 7:52 PMMar 27, 6:59 AM

91.43%chance

9410054

OptionVotes

YES

2554

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Dec 30, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76163

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Scott Wiener wins the 2026 House election?

Oct 22, 5:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

134686

OptionVotes

YES

1062

942

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Mar 29, 3:08 PMMar 28, 3:59 AM

82.35%chance

392206

OptionVotes

YES

3022

1644

Will an AI ballot measure in any state be endorsed in a Scott Alexander post by the 2026 elections?

Dec 14, 1:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.88%chance

7560

OptionVotes

YES

1274

785

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

1025

893

Will Scott Alexander post another article with a title that matches "The [disease] of [emotion]" before 2028?

Jan 1, 9:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.07%chance

6425

OptionVotes

YES

1275

784

Will Tom Scott's "This Video Has [] Views" title stop being updated before 2030?

Jul 13, 5:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

37.4%chance

11210

OptionVotes

YES

1048

895

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

YES

1008

988

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Prediction markets for Scott

Prediction markets for Scott

Prediction markets for Scott

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Scott Wiener wins the 2026 House election?

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Will an AI ballot measure in any state be endorsed in a Scott Alexander post by the 2026 elections?

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Will Scott Alexander post another article with a title that matches "The [disease] of [emotion]" before 2028?

Will Tom Scott's "This Video Has [] Views" title stop being updated before 2030?

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

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