Scott News

Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?

Feb 14, 5:26 PMFeb 14, 5:23 PM

61.8%chance

19845488

OptionVotes

YES

1272

786

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.6%chance

10842720

OptionVotes

YES

11866

8858

Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?

Jun 18, 3:15 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10%chance

10934526

OptionVotes

YES

1006

469

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.14%chance

10914299

OptionVotes

YES

3638

469

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Mar 26, 7:52 PMMar 27, 6:59 AM

95.34%chance

9710447

OptionVotes

YES

2947

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8110310

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

San Francisco CD 11: Scott Wiener - Connie Chan margin, November 2026

Sep 15, 7:02 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

227210

OptionProbability

(5%, 10%], Scott win

(0.5%, 5%], Scott narrow win

[-5%, -0.5%), Connie narrow win

[-10%, -5%), Connie win

(10%, 20%], Scott commanding win

[-0.5%, 0.5%], squeaker

> 20%, Scott blowout

[-20%, -10%), Connie commanding win

< -20%, Connie blowout

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Dec 30, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86464

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Will RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?

Aug 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.16%chance

65556

OptionVotes

YES

15218

6571

Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?

Sep 20, 11:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.86%chance

193027

OptionVotes

YES

11784

8486

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Mar 29, 3:08 PMMar 28, 3:59 AM

82.68%chance

392256

OptionVotes

YES

3072

1633

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

1025

893

Scott News

Prediction markets for Scott

Prediction markets for Scott

Prediction markets for Scott

Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

San Francisco CD 11: Scott Wiener - Connie Chan margin, November 2026

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Will RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?

Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Latest stories