Scott News

Congress Advances Crypto Overhaul as Stablecoin Law Signed and Senate Drafts Rules

11 days ago

Senators Tim Scott and Cynthia Lummis Release Discussion Draft to Boost U.S. Leadership in Digital Asset Regulation and Crypto Innovation

10 days ago

Brazil

US Foreign Policy

Tariffs

Trump Opens Door to Talks With Lula on 50% Tariffs

12 hours ago

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.25%chance

183266085

OptionVotes

YES

17639

7122

Will Senator Scott Wiener be employed by an AI company like Anthropic within the next 12 months?

Aug 17, 11:50 PMAug 25, 6:59 AM

2%chance

52192987

OptionVotes

YES

7000

143

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.47%chance

335126206

OptionVotes

YES

6451

596

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.99%chance

10741945

OptionVotes

YES

11036

9044

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80%chance

10712835

OptionVotes

YES

3243

555

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

769927

OptionProbability

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Mar 26, 7:52 PMMar 27, 6:59 AM

85.8%chance

949754

OptionVotes

YES

2254

105

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Mar 29, 3:08 PMMar 28, 3:59 AM

76.77%chance

381544

OptionVotes

YES

2360

1812

Will Scott Wiener's SB 53 become law?

Jan 10, 1:14 AMOct 2, 5:59 AM

62.72%chance

11731

OptionVotes

YES

1297

771

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.75%chance

11423

OptionVotes

YES

1028

975

Will Tom Scott's "This Video Has [] Views" title stop being updated before 2030?

Jul 13, 5:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

37.55%chance

11206

OptionVotes

YES

1050

891

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

YES

1008

988

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Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Will Senator Scott Wiener be employed by an AI company like Anthropic within the next 12 months?

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Will Scott Wiener's SB 53 become law?

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Will Tom Scott's "This Video Has [] Views" title stop being updated before 2030?

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

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