Scott News

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.1%chance

194280263

OptionVotes

YES

10838

9495

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

1.63%chance

348175802

OptionVotes

YES

15298

200

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.02%chance

10841949

OptionVotes

YES

11019

9048

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

10913611

OptionVotes

YES

2950

638

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Mar 26, 7:52 PMMar 27, 6:59 AM

91.43%chance

9410054

OptionVotes

YES

2554

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

779932

OptionProbability

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Scott Wiener wins the 2026 House election?

Oct 22, 5:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.71%chance

103987

OptionVotes

YES

1144

874

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Mar 29, 3:08 PMMar 28, 3:59 AM

82%chance

382155

OptionVotes

YES

2971

1655

Will an AI ballot measure in any state be endorsed in a Scott Alexander post by the 2026 elections?

Dec 14, 1:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

61.88%chance

7560

OptionVotes

YES

1274

785

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

1025

893

Will Tom Scott's "This Video Has [] Views" title stop being updated before 2030?

Jul 13, 5:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

37.4%chance

11210

OptionVotes

YES

1048

895

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

YES

1008

988

Scott News

Prediction markets for Scott

Prediction markets for Scott

Prediction markets for Scott

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Scott Wiener wins the 2026 House election?

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Will an AI ballot measure in any state be endorsed in a Scott Alexander post by the 2026 elections?

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Will Tom Scott's "This Video Has [] Views" title stop being updated before 2030?

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

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