Sessions News

[AUS] A Driver DNF due to reliability problems (e.g., engine, power unit etc.)

[AUS] Red flag during qualifying

[AUS] At least 3 DNF

[AUS] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)

[TEST] Cadillac sets the slowest lap time of the whole testing session

[AUS] P1 & P2 by same team

[AUS] winner has no WDC title

[AUS] Audi reaches Q2 (Qualifying)

[AUS] Ferrari finishes on the podium

[AUS] An Audi driver finishes in top 10 (race)

[AUS] Verstappen finishes in top 10 (race)

[CHN] Yellow flag first lap Sprint

[CHN] Yellow flag first lap main race

[CHN] Ferrari on the podium of the sprint race

[CHN] Bearman scores points in the sprint race (top 8)

[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main qualifying

[CHN] VSC or Physical Safety car during the sprint race

[CHN] A Ferrari is P1 at the end of lap 1 (main race)

[CHN] Physical Safety Car during the main race

[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race

[CHN] Bearman scores points in the main race (top 10)

[CHN] 5 or more DNF in the main race

[JAP] Physical Safety Car during the race

[JAP] Team other than Mercedes or Ferrari gets a podium

[JAP] Antonelli wins the race

[MIA] Non-Mercedes pole position in sprint qualifying

[MIA] McLaren 1-2 in the sprint race

[MIA] Leclerc podium in the sprint race

[MIA] Physical Safety Car in the main race

[MIA] A Mercedes finishes outside the top 5 in the sprint race

[MIA] Gasly reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)

[MIA] Antonelli wins the main race

[MIA] A McLaren on the podium in the main race

[MIA] Race start time is changed or cancelled due to weather conditions

[CAN] Three different teams on the podium (main race)

[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint qualifying

[CAN] Red flag during sprint qualifying

[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the sprint race

[CAN] 5 or more DNS/DNF in the main race

[CAN] An Alpine finishes in top 10 in the main race

[CAN] Hamilton finishes on podium in the main race

[CAN] Hamilton outfinishes Verstappen (main race)

[MON] Pole Sitter wins the race

[MON] Red flag during qualifying

[MON] Red flag during the race

[MON] A driver overtakes their teammate on track

[MON] Safety car (non-virtual) during the race

[MON] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds

[MON] Three different teams on the podium

[MON] Hadjar finishes in top 5 (race)

[MON] A Williams scores points (top 10)

[MON] 3 or more DNF/DNS

[BAR] An Audi reaches Q3

[BAR] Hamilton on the podium

[BAR] Verstappen finishes in top 5

[BAR] 3 or more DNF/DNS

[BAR] At least one driver that finishes in top 5 does 3 pit stops (or more)

[BAR] At least one podium finisher from team other than Ferrari or Mercedes

[AUT] Both Ferraris in top 5 in qualifying

[AUT] Qualifying lap invalidated due to track limits

[AUT] Physical safety car during the race

Leave it open for the upcoming GP

[AUT] Wet or intermediate tyres used during qual or race

[AUT] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[AUT] Red flag during qualifying

[AUT] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds

[AUT] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying

[AUT] An Audi reaches Q3

[AUS] Physical Safety Car during the race

[AUS] Yellow flag first lap

[AUS] Both Aston Martins qualify in the last row (21st and 22nd)

[TEST] Cadillac in the top 5 of the timesheets on any single day

[TEST] Ferrari sets the most laps during the whole testing session

[TEST] Mercedes sets the fastest lap time of the whole testing session

[TEST] First red flag caused by a driver error/spin etc. (not mechanical failure)

[AUS] Both Aston Martins retire after formation lap before race start

[AUS] The car finishing on P5 gets lapped

[AUS] Both Aston Martins don't finish the race

[AUS] Hadjar finishes on the podium

[CHN] Ferrari qualifies 1st or 2nd in the sprint qualifying (at least one driver)

[CHN] Red flag during sprint qualifying

[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race

[CHN] Gasly scores points in the sprint race (top 8)

[CHN] An Audi reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)

[CHN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race

[CHN] An Audi scores points in the main race (top 10)

[CHN] A Red Bull Racing driver finishes in top 5 (main race)

[CHN] Winner wins by 11.00 seconds or more?

[JAP] Both Aston Martins DNF

[JAP] Yellow flag first lap

[JAP] Red flag in qualifying

[JAP] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[JAP] Team other than Mercedes gets pole position in qualifying

[JAP] Bearman reaches Q3

[JAP] 5 or more DNF (including DNS)

[JAP] Linblad scores points (top 10)

[JAP] Bortoleto scores points (top 10)

[JAP] Hadjar finishes ahead of Verstappen (face)

[JAP] A McLaren retires/DNS due to reliability issues

[JAP] Verstappen on the podium

[MIA] Impeding penalty during sprint qualifying

[MIA] Red flag during sprint qualifying

[MIA] Colapinto scores points in the sprint race

[MIA] Hadjar scores points in the sprint race

[MIA] Physical Safety Car in the sprint race

[MIA] McLaren pole position in qualifying for the main race

[MIA] Red flag during qualifying for the main race

[MIA] A Mercedes qualifies outside the top 5 (main race qualifying)

[MIA] Hadjar doesn't reach Q3 (main race qualifying)

[MIA] Verstappen on the Podium in the main race

[MIA] 5 or more DNF/DNS

[MIA] Both Ferrari finish in top 6 in the main race

[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the main race

[CAN] An Audi reaches SQ3 (Sprint Qualifying)

[CAN] Impeding penalty during sprint qualifying

[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race

[CAN] A Ferrari on the podium in the sprint race

[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the sprint race

[CAN] Yellow flag in the first lap of the sprint race

[CAN] Sainz scores points in the sprint race (top 8)

[CAN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race

[CAN] Red flag during qualifying for the main race

[CAN] An Audi reaches Q3 (Main Race Qualifying)

[CAN] A Williams reaches Q3 (Main Race Qualifying)

[CAN] Yellow flag first lap of the main race

[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race

[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the main race

[CAN] Linblad scores points in the main race

[CAN] An Audi finishes in top 10 in the main race

[CAN] Oscar Piastri Finishes on Podium in the Main Race

[CAN] English broadcoast shows Colapinto's onboard camera view in the main race

[CAN] 7 or more DNS/DNF in the main race

[CAN] Piastri scores points in the main race

[MON] 5 or more on-track overtakes

[MON] Impeding penalty during qualifying

[MON] Wet or intermediate tyres used during the race

[MON] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)

[BAR] Physical Safety Car during the race

[BAR] Yellow flag in the first lap of the race

[BAR] Mercedes driver wins

[BAR] Both McLaren qualify in top 4

[BAR] Antonelli pole position in qualifying

[BAR] Hulkenberg scores points (top 10)

[BAR] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race

Yudkowsky Attends

Two people make intense eye contact for 60 seconds without smiling or laughing

Aella Attends

Mana is exchanged for goods

Mana is exchanged for services

There will be more than one reporter

Someone attends in a partial fursuit

Smores are consumed

Someone wears a suit and tie

There are at least five people talking after 5am

Trump golfs the weekend of the conference

Barak sells/offers something at night market

Standard (not RPS) poker tournament

Someone does the 6 7 thing with their hands in front of Eliezer Yudkowsky and he clearly sees it

Someone cries

>4 people group hug

10+ people with a Wikipedia page attend

Robin Hanson comes even though he's meant to be at the Public Outreach Conference

Albie gets hugs from at least 5 different people

Someone holds a kabbalat shabbat

cuddle puddle of >5

Someone gets banned from manifest

More than five (non-admin) mods in attendance

Someone gets a job offer at the conference

Someone does something to make an option resolve Yes and later regrets it

All official @ManifoldSports World Cup markets for games played during the conference auto-resolve without issues

Attendance is higher than last year

There is a Karaoke Event

There will be a marshmallow fight

Someone gets a boyfriend at the conference

Someone previously opposed to the Effective Altruism movement is convinced to support it instead

@Zoli hosts a wrestling event

A debate is held over whether a fursuit is full or partial

A billionaire shows up

one or more people are unable to attend due to fuckery at border/customs

Someone breakdances competently

Someone takes the "Giving What We Can" pledge

A session receives more than 2x RSVPs than the session location’s listed capacity

Analytic Philosophy vs. Rationalism panel happens

someone gets convinced to start writing on substack

Someone adds >= 10k liquidity to this market

7 or more people attend Sunday Mass with @Austin

there will be someone with a friend AI necklace

Malcolm Collins attends

Someone unpacks a Pokemon card worth >$10

10 or more markets are created and resolved within an hour (popups)

Someone writes a hit piece

Someone adds >= 20k liquidity to this market

Someone gets a girlfriend at the conference

Someone changes Robin Hanson's mind (verified by Hanson) - NA if he doesn't attend

Someone has a manifold crane logo tattoo

RPS Poker Tournament

BTC falls below $100,000 during the conference

There is a Costume Contest

CFTC or other prediction market regulator appears (may be an employee)

Someone rickrolls Eliezer Yudkowsky

At least 3 Norwegian people attend Manifest.

There is a New York Times reporter present, like Manifest 2023

Someone loses at least 50% of one eyebrow

Nothing Ever Happens during the conference (No major world news breaks such as Ukraine Ceasefire, China Trade Deal, etc)

Someone loses at least 25% of their total eyebrow mass

There's an earthquake in Berkeley 3.0 or higher

Scott Alexander mentions Tyler Cowen in public (no private convo)

Prostitution for mana occurs (over 10k mana)

@ian finally reveals what his new middle name is

Someone unpacks a Pokemon card worth >$50

Someone attends in a full fursuit

Dwarkesh reveals who his "biggest guest yet" was going to be

There is an orgy

An article about the conference appears in the New York Times within one week of the conference's closing

Someone breaks an arm

Someone who previously did not belive that Tiramisu is cake is convinced otherwise

Runs out of Huel/Soylent

A pope attends

There is more than one orgy

There will be a Worldcoin Orb

Someone does coinflips and gets tails 7 times in a row

Destiny joins Manifold and bets on this market

Polymarket creates a market related to manifest

Someone finally sets up a passable ball pit

The conference is cancelled

NO

NO

John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump

John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

James Comey – Former FBI Director

James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN

John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI

Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama

Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden

Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama

Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden

Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump

Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States

Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump

Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella

John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama

Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm

Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein

Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump

Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama

Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden

Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden

Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding

James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter

Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations

Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump

Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States

Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump

Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division

Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm

Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein

Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller

Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General

Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump

Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office

Joe Biden – President of the United States

Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows

Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI

Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London

Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions

Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump

Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm

Curtis Heide – FBI Agent

Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration

Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama

Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump

Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command

Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump

Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection

Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs

Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare

Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General

Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development

Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division

Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm

Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"

Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump

Nellie Ohr – Former CIA Employee and Independent Contractor for Fusion GPS

Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump

55th parliament

57th parliament

58th parliament

59th parliament

60th parliament

Bill reintroduced in 2026-27 session and passes both Houses

Parliament Act used in second session (2026-27) to pass bill

Bill reintroduced in 2026-27 session but fails again

Bill rejected at Lords Third Reading before EOY 2027

Bill stalls in Lords committee stage through EOY 2027

Bill passes Lords with significant amendments before EOY 2027

Bill receives royal assent before EOY 2027

Bill passes Lords with minimal amendments before EOY 2027

Bill passes Lords but Commons rejects Lords amendments before EOY 2027

Before Manifest 2027

Before 2027

Before September 2026

Before August 2026

Before July 2026

50+ Deaths

20+ Wipes

4:1 or more Deaths:Wipes (this would be good!)

200+ Deaths

Any 3+ hour session with 0 Deaths and Wipes

A session with triple back-to-back wipes (no deaths between)

100+ Wipes

Pat has more deaths than Friend

500+ Deaths

NO

NO