Sharpe News

How many Iranians will be killed by it's regime in 2026?

Jan 11, 12:53 PMJan 12, 2:59 AM

446583

OptionProbability

40000+

20000-39999

10000-19999

6000-9999

3000 - 5999

2000- 2999

0 - 1999

What is the highest Sharpe ratio of any Manifold user?

Jan 8, 8:31 PMFeb 8, 5:59 AM

162731

OptionProbability

17.5 - 20

Above 20

Below 5

7.5 - 9.9

10 - 12.4

12.5 - 14.9

15 - 17.4

5 - 7.4

Donovan Sharpe Stock (Permanent)

Nov 14, 9:51 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

281638

OptionProbability

YES

727

504

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

1003

994

S&P 500 Index when the US unemployment rate first surpasses 30%

May 26, 3:49 PMJan 3, 4:59 AM

4474

OptionProbability

15000 - 20000

Above 20000

Below 2000

10000 - 14999

2000 - 3999

8000 - 9999

6000 - 7999

4000 - 5999

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Dec 2, 7:02 PMDec 30, 6:53 PM

59.06%chance

4301

OptionVotes

YES

1201

833

If Democrats win the 2026 Midterms will Republicans contest or deny the results?

Jan 12, 2:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.89%chance

7270

OptionVotes

YES

213

Will a xenharmonic song enter the Billboard Top 100 or Spotify Top 100 tracks before 2030?

Jul 19, 2:35 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

44%chance

6216

OptionVotes

YES

1128

886

Will X (Twitter) be overtaken by Threads or another platform in daily active users by mid-2026?

Dec 18, 3:17 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

7143

OptionProbability

X maintains higher daily active users than Threads through mid-2026

Threads overtakes X in daily active users by mid-2026

X and Threads reach parity in daily active users by mid-2026

Market resolves N/A due to unclear measurement methodology

Bluesky overtakes X in daily active users by mid-2026

Another platform (not Threads or Bluesky) overtakes X by mid-2026

Other

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

UK imposes net migration cap below 150,000 by 2030?

Dec 19, 8:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will "“Sharp Left Turn” discourse: An opinionated r..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 29, 11:16 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

100

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How many Iranians will be killed by it's regime in 2026?

What is the highest Sharpe ratio of any Manifold user?

Donovan Sharpe Stock (Permanent)

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

S&P 500 Index when the US unemployment rate first surpasses 30%

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

If Democrats win the 2026 Midterms will Republicans contest or deny the results?

Will a xenharmonic song enter the Billboard Top 100 or Spotify Top 100 tracks before 2030?

Will X (Twitter) be overtaken by Threads or another platform in daily active users by mid-2026?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

UK imposes net migration cap below 150,000 by 2030?

Will "“Sharp Left Turn” discourse: An opinionated r..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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