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Top stories

Market Basket Sisters Oust CEO Ally Bill Shea From Board Amid Feud

Authors

5

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Shea

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

434062

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

Tesla buys xAI by EOY2026?

Mar 28, 10:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.79%chance

213515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2619

384

Will Vitalik Buterin have a boyfriend/husband (at least once) before 2026?

Jan 5, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.75%chance

201981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1917

780

Does your body keep track of your sleep debt for more than 2 weeks?

Dec 14, 5:50 AMJan 21, 5:50 AM

23.94%chance

191205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

964

Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?

Mar 29, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.27%chance

121122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

597

Will we be able to sell the manifest dragon shirt designed by @etirabys in the manifold merch store?

Jan 26, 7:57 PMDec 31, 7:56 PM

69.04%chance

6610

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1493

670

What percent of those taking rapamycin to slow aging will comment a positive or neutral review?

Sep 5, 10:30 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

56.24%chance

14466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1453

1085

Whose P(Doom) is higher: Emmett Shear (YES) or Sam Altman (NO)?

Jan 25, 6:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.54%chance

16332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

947

Rippling wins its lawsuit against Deel by 2028?

May 12, 5:33 PMJan 1, 6:33 PM

52.98%chance

5183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

942

Is Emmett Shear the interim ex-CEO of OpenAI?

Nov 24, 11:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.02%chance

377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

40

Will someone extend Ken Stanley's NEAT into Robert Ghrist's sheaves by EOY2026?

May 21, 6:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.99%chance

236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

73

Will a 20+page book "abelian shear cohomology OR sheaf theory for wordcels" be written by EOY2028?

Feb 15, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.62%chance

27

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

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