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Shearing News

Who is behind Twitter user @qorrenqial1215?

Feb 4, 3:21 AMJan 1, 1:06 AM

3538466

OptionProbability

Other

Celene (@toasterlighting)

Alice (@psyclyx)

Aria (@ariaurellium)

Olivia (@4confusedemoji)

Autumn (@adrusi)

mercury (@rodentiation)

Melody (@dawnlightmelody)

Zane (@JDVance)

Celeste (@parafactual)

@torrential12015

April (@apriisr)

Skye (@SkyeSharkie)

Annie (@annieposting)

Sercy (@dogmadeath)

Eliezer Yudkowsky (@ESYudkowsky)

Michael Vassar (@HiFromMichaelV)

Emma (@revoccue)

William Francis Mallett the Fourth

Roofon (@RoofOnTheHouse)

Vie McCoy (@viemccoy)

Moshe Yudkowsky (@mosheyudkowsky)

@Heronofmawi

@AIHegemonyMemes

Raven (@schellingwitch)

Alea (@noncanonicaleae)

light architect (@iceberm)

Octavia (@slimepriestess)

@tapolara

Liz Lovelace (@liz_love_lace)

Hephaistos Fnord (@HephaistosF)

Tetra (@tetraspacewest)

Jessica (@jessi_cata)

Emmett Shear (@eshear)

Caleb Ditchfield

Thiago Coelho (@thiagovscoelho)

Nicholas Decker (@captgouda24)

Pope Leo XIV (@pontifex)

19

15

14

6

6

6

5

4

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Who will be the next CEO of OpenAI, after Sam Altman?

Nov 22, 9:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

273011

OptionProbability

Other

[None - Position will cease to exist]

Mira Murati

Elon Musk

Greg Brockman

Sam Altman

Bret Taylor

Larry Summers

Adam D'Angelo

Andrej Karpathy

Eric Schmidt

Paul Graham

Peter Thiel

Wojciech Zaremba

Ben Horowitz

Jessica Livingston

Marc Benioff

Sheryl Sandberg

Tim Cook

John Doerr

Reed Hastings

Fei Fei Lee

Alexander Wang

George Hotz

Brad Lightcap

Bob Mcgrew

Peter Welinder

Jason Kwon

Mark Chen

Helen Toner

Ilya Sutskever

Emmett Shear

Dario Amodei

Satya Nadela

Jeff Bezos

Demis Hassabis

Robin Li

Clément Delangue

Lila Ibrahim

Alex Karp

Reid Hoffman

Raquel Urtasun

Marc Andreessen

Aidan Gomez

Sandra Rivera

Gary Marcus

Jaime Teevan

Sundar Pichai

Jack Clark

Anna Makanju

Shane Legg

Andrew Ng

Pushmeet Kohli

Yann LeCun

Mark Zuckerberg

Yoshua Bengio

Hinton

Marissa Mayer

Spencer Rascoff

Garry Tan

52

12

4

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?

Mar 29, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.27%chance

121122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

597

Whose P(Doom) is higher: Emmett Shear (YES) or Sam Altman (NO)?

Jan 25, 6:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.54%chance

16332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

947

Is Emmett Shear the interim ex-CEO of OpenAI?

Nov 24, 11:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.02%chance

377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

40

Will a 20+page book "abelian shear cohomology OR sheaf theory for wordcels" be written by EOY2028?

Feb 15, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.62%chance

27

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

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