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Prediction markets for Shor
OptionProbability
46
20
11
8
4
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will there be a food shortage related to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz?
Mar 7, 4:27 PMDec 31, 4:21 PM
41%chance
505553
OptionVotes
1200
834
OptionProbability
100
100
99
99
47
44
41
41
41
39
39
38
37
37
36
36
35
34
34
33
30
29
28
23
20
19
17
17
13
9
5
4
Will there be a shortage of IT workers by the end of 2030?
Dec 24, 3:21 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
33.92%chance
191602
OptionVotes
994
929
Will Germany have a shortage of natural Gas by the end of 2027?
Nov 8, 5:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
17.95%chance
211397
OptionVotes
1040
964
OptionVotes
1329
892
Will there be a platform that provides personalized short movies by 2030?
Mar 8, 6:15 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
79.57%chance
15560
OptionVotes
997
881
Will a quantum computer successfully use Shor’s algorithm to break a public-key cryptosystem, e.g. RSA, by 2030?
Mar 28, 7:22 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM
14.72%chance
11393
OptionVotes
363
158
What will break Bitcoin's secp256k1 cryptography first, if broken before 2030?
Apr 12, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
242
OptionProbability
66
11
11
11
OptionVotes
114
88
Will David Shor vote for at least one Republican by 2050?
Jul 22, 9:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
49.52%chance
11
OptionVotes
101
99
[Short Fuse] Will BAAJA (permitting reform) clear the cloture vote to proceed to debate?
Nov 8, 10:56 AMNov 9, 10:00 PM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000