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Short News

In 2025, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short story to a prompt?

Mar 2, 7:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.01%chance

524788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2210

976

Will the person cast as Link in the Legend of Zelda movie be short?

Nov 8, 12:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.37%chance

153012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1527

591

In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?

Aug 18, 10:56 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

15.53%chance

272959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2332

429

Neural Nets will write award-winning short stories and publishable 50k-word books by the end of 2025

Mar 28, 9:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.96%chance

332934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1843

682

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.48%chance

252203

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1583

632

Will Ukraine demonstrate a domestically-produced short-range ballistic missile by the end of 2025?

Oct 23, 10:48 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

17.51%chance

161653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2171

461

A single neural network will win multiple top short story awards (for many stories) before 2026. No editing.

May 19, 4:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.05%chance

201191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1844

771

Will there be a platform that provides personalized short movies by 2030?

Mar 8, 6:15 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

79.57%chance

15560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

881

If AI becomes economically dominant will we see Universal Basic Income (UBI) become a reality shortly thereafter?

Sep 28, 9:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.13%chance

18425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

993

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

Will "A short course on AGI safety from the GDM Ali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 29, 5:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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