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Prediction markets for Short

[short fuse] One Nation gets at least 4 seats in the South Australian election?

Mar 22, 10:53 AMMar 29, 10:52 AM

74.03%chance

2925464

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1688

592

In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?

Aug 18, 10:56 AMSep 1, 4:00 AM

15.39%chance

468196

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2345

426

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.45%chance

282673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1346

743

When will I mistake an AI-generated short story for a story from the New Yorker, in at least 1 of 5 tries?

Nov 22, 7:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

132249

OptionProbability

2026

2025

Other

2027

2023

2024

42

26

18

8

3

3

Stock: Which Economic System is better: Capitalism (BUY) or Socialism (SHORT)?

Jun 4, 10:47 PMJun 5, 4:59 AM

14999

OptionProbability

NO

YES

557

199

Will there be a platform that provides personalized short movies by 2030?

Mar 8, 6:15 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

79.57%chance

15560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

881

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will I get an A on my short story about prediction markets? [EP. 2]

Mar 5, 2:04 AMApr 4, 2:01 AM

57.15%chance

4293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

866

Will "Do confident short timelines make sense?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 16, 2:14 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

20.05%chance

6237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

690

Will a stage at the 2026 Tour de France be cut short due to pro-Palestine protests?

Sep 15, 3:20 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

43.05%chance

555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Will "A short course on AGI safety from the GDM Ali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 29, 5:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

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