Short News

In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?

Aug 18, 10:56 AMSep 1, 4:00 AM

3.61%chance

6312985

OptionVotes

YES

5165

194

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.54%chance

313292

OptionVotes

YES

1188

842

Stock: Which Economic System is better: Capitalism (BUY) or Socialism (SHORT)?

Jun 4, 10:47 PMJun 5, 4:59 AM

14999

OptionProbability

YES

557

199

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

39.72%chance

20807

OptionVotes

YES

1328

683

Short AI Timelines Stock (Permanent)

Jan 27, 7:45 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

11791

OptionProbability

YES

426

Will there be a platform that provides personalized short movies by 2030?

Mar 8, 6:15 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

79.57%chance

15560

OptionVotes

YES

997

881

Which short story will win a Hugo award in 2026?

Apr 21, 11:25 PMAug 30, 11:00 PM

2319

OptionProbability

“Laser Eyes Ain’t Everything” - Effie Seiberg (Diabolical Plots, May 16, 2025)

“10 Visions of the Future; or, Self-Care for the End of Days” - Samantha Mills (Uncanny Magazine, Issue 63)

“In My Country” - Thomas Ha (Clarkesworld, Issue 223)

“Wire Mother” - Isabel J. Kim (Clarkesworld, Issue 229)

“Six People to Revise You” - J.R. Dawson (Uncanny Magazine, Issue 62)

“Missing Helen” - Tia Tashiro (Clarkesworld, Issue 226)

Will "Do confident short timelines make sense?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 16, 2:14 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

20.05%chance

6237

OptionVotes

YES

1062

690

Will "What’s the short timeline plan?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 2, 7:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5%chance

1164

OptionVotes

YES

264

Will "A short course on AGI safety from the GDM Ali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 29, 5:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

126

OptionVotes

YES

1000

"Dividends for SHORT" anti-stock

Apr 19, 2:14 AMApr 19, 3:59 AM

415

OptionProbability

YES

123

Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

1010

941

Short News

Prediction markets for Short

Prediction markets for Short

Prediction markets for Short

In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Stock: Which Economic System is better: Capitalism (BUY) or Socialism (SHORT)?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Short AI Timelines Stock (Permanent)

Will there be a platform that provides personalized short movies by 2030?

Which short story will win a Hugo award in 2026?

Will "Do confident short timelines make sense?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "What’s the short timeline plan?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "A short course on AGI safety from the GDM Ali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

"Dividends for SHORT" anti-stock

Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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