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The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.

xAI IPO

FrontierMath Tier 1-3 >= 80%

FrontierMath Tier 4 >= 80%

An open millennium prize problem is solved, involving some AI assistance

OpenAI will introduce ads to ChatGPT in some form

ARC-AGI 3 Semi-private >= 50%

SSI will raise >= $1B in a funding round

OpenAI releases GPT-6

Anthropic releases Claude 5

Schmidhuber will complain about people not citing his work properly

OpenAI will announce some kind of hardware product

Zvi will write a blog post mentioning SSI

SSI will have an update listed at https://ssi.inc/updates

Thinking Machines will train and release their own model

Yudkowsky will publish a post on Lesswrong

A Solid Result in FrontierMath: Open Problems is solved by AI

Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.

I will think that computer use has significantly improved since 2025

Jensen Huang continuously CEO of Nvidia through EOY 2026

Dario Amodei will continuously be CEO of Anthropic until the end of the year

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $1T

Ilya Sutskever will continuously be CEO of SSI until the end of the year

Nvidia will outperform the S&P

Microsoft+Google+Amazon+Meta capex will increase by >=30% vs 2025

The METR time horizon will exceed 20 hours

My median ASI timelines will shorten

Anthropic IPO

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 170

There will be federal AI Safety legislation which I think is net positive

Ilya Sutskever will be on a podcast for more than 30 mins

Grok 5 will be released

The METR time horizon will exceed 40 hours

I will think that there has been significant progress towards models which use neuralese/recurrence

SSI will raise >=$10B in a funding round

Google will outperform the S&P

An LLM will beat me at Shogi

I will think that METR time horizon continues to be an important benchmark

There will be clear evidence of egregious scheming in the wild

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $1,000/month.

Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP

Any of [OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Anthropic, xAI, Meta] claim to have reached AGI

Anthropic releases Claude 6

There will be an international treaty/agreement centered on AI

My P(doom) at EOY (resolves to %)

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-4

I will meet someone who has an AI companion

I will ride on a tesla robotaxi

An open source model will be released with 5T+ total parameters

SSI will release a product

At least 3 people will do an anti-AI hunger strike

I will think that there have been significant advances in continual learning

An LLM will beat me at chess

The US will allow selling some sort of Blackwell chip to china

Metaculus will predict AGI before 2030

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e25 FLOP

Yann Lecun’s AMI lab will release an open weights model of some kind

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] declare bankruptcy

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] will be acquired

The bubble collapses in devastating fashion

I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

Chatgpt will write an explicit sex story without jailbreaks

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-5

There will be an AI capabilities pause lasting at least a month involving frontier companies

Thinking machines will post at least 10 blog posts at https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/

There will be an AI protest involving more than 100k people

AAA with LLM powered NPCs releases on Steam

There will be a credible leak about SSI strategy

I will see a humanoid robot walking around in a non-demo setting

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 185

An open source model will top the Chatbot Arena in the 'text' category

OpenAI IPO

I will think that a model released by Meta is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

Anthropic will release an image/video model

The weights of a closed source model from [OA, XAI, GDM, Anthropic] will be stolen/leaked

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 200

An AGI lab will be fined >= $10B

OpenAI will sell their own chips to external customers

SSI will be valued at >= $100B

Yudkowsky will publish a new book

Anthropic will introduce ads to Claude in some form

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e27 FLOP according to Epoch AI

US unemployment rate reaches 10% due in part to AI

Grok 6 will be released

China will invade Taiwan according to metaculus

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] releases an LLM (general-purpose or code-only) pretrained largely on licensed data

S&P 500 will fall by more than 50%

I will watch a fully AI-generated film lasting at least an hour

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $5T

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $10,000/month.

I will think that SSI has the best coding model in the world for a period of at least a week

S&P 500 will rise by more than 50%

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e26 FLOP

SSI IPO

SSI will be valued at >= $1 T

Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima 🥉🥉

Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer

Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait - Laticauda colubrina 🥉

Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius

Sea Otter - Enhydra lutris

Wolverine - Gulo gulo 🥉

Sonoran Desert Sidewinder - Crotalus cerastes cercobombus

Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus 🥉

House Mouse - Mus musculus domesticus

Coyote - Canis latrans

[⚔️Underdog] Sulfur Cave Molly - Poecilia sulphuraria 🥉

[⚔️Frontrunner] Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx 🥉🥈

❌Defeated: Lion - Panthera leo 🥈🥉🥉[beat by Dolphin]

❌Defeated: Bornean orangutan - Pongo pygmaeus [beat by Giant Nematode]

❌Defeated: Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Brown Rat]

❌Defeated: Dog - Canis familiaris 🥉🥈 [beat by Leopard seal]

❌Defeated: Cat - Felis catus 🥉🥉🥉 [beat by Meerkat]

❌Defeated: Tiger - Panthera tigris 🥈🥈 [beat by Sulfur Cave Molly]

❌Defeated: Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus 🥉 [beat by Leopard Seal]

❌Defeated: Elephant - Loxodonta africana 🥈🥈[beat by Giant Nematode]

❌Defeated: Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca [beat by Polar Bear]

❌Defeated: Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri 🥉 [beat by Wolverine]

❌Defeated: Axolotl - Ambystoma mexicanum [beat by Great black-backed gull]

❌Defeated: Orca - Orcinus orca [beat by Housefly]

❌Defeated: Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis 🥈 [beat by Meerkat]

❌Defeated: Hotwheels sisyphus spider - Hotwheels sisyphus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

❌Defeated: Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus 🥈 [beat byt Cat]

❌Defeated: Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus 🥈🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Red Fox]

🚫Ineligible: Water bear - Milnesium tardigradum

❌Defeated: Ping-Pong Tree Sponge - Chondrocladia concrescens 🥉 [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]

🚫Ineligible: human [I'm shortening this]

🚫Ineligible: Tardigrade (LFG)

❌Defeated: Great White Shark - Carcharodon carcharias [beat by Lion]

🚫Ineligible: [This animal was edited in bad faith]

❌Defeated: Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus [beat by Housefly]

❌Defeated: Wolf - Canis lupus [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]

❌Defeated: Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes 🥉🥈 [beat by Giant Pacific Octopus]

❌Defeated: Cliff Swallow - Petrochelidon pyrrhonota [beat by Elephant]

❌Defeated: Platypus - Ornithorhynchus anatinus 🥉🥉 [beat by Western Lowland Gorilla]

❌Defeated: Haast's Eagle - Hieraaetus moorei [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]

❌Defeated: Flightless Elephant Bird - Aepyornis maximus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

❌Defeated: Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus [beat by Dog]🥉🥉🥈

❌Defeated: Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana [beat by Cat]

❌Defeated: Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus [beat by Ice Worm]

❌Defeated: Great evening bat - Ia io [beat by Lion]

❌Defeated: Funny valentine spider - Funny valentine [beat by Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian]

❌Defeated: Yi qi dinosaur - Yi qi [beat by Elephant]

❌Defeated: Aha ha wasp - Aha ha [beat by Hippopotamus]

❌Defeated: Penis snake - Atretochoana eiselti [beat by Cat]

❌Defeated: Colossal Whale - Perucetus colossus [beat by Meerkat]

❌Defeated: Cuban Cockroach - Panchlora nivea [beat by Hippopotamus]

❌Defeated: Panther Chameleon - Furcifer pardalis [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

❌Defeated: Giant Dragonfly - Meganeuropsis permiana [beat by Red Fox]

❌Defeated: Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini 🥉[beat by Ice Worm]

❌Defeated: Triceratops - Triceratops horridus [beat by Red Volcano Sponge]

❌Defeated: Giant Pterosaur - Quetzalcoatlus northropi [beat by Ping-Pong Tree Sponge]

❌Defeated: Lesser Flamingo - Phoeniconaias minor [beat by Honey Badger]

❌Defeated: Kiwi - Apteryx australis [beat by Dog]

❌Defeated: Red Volcano Sponge - Acarnus Erithacus 🥉[beat by Platypus]

❌Defeated: Ice Worm - Mesenchytraeus solifugus 🥉🥉[beat by Tiger]

❌Defeated: Meerkat - Suricata suricatta 🥉🥉🥉 [beat by Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait]

❌Defeated: Housefly - Musca domestica 🥉🥉🥉 [beat by Tiger]

❌Defeated: Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana [beat by Housefly]

❌Defeated: Great black-backed gull - Larus marinus 🥉 [beat by Western lowland gorilla]

❌Defeated: Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Penguin]

❌Defeated: Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri [beat by Lion]

❌Defeated: Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian - Dermophis donaldtrumpi 🥈[beat by Brownthroated three-toed sloth]

❌Defeated: New World Screwworm - Cochliomyia hominivorax [beat by Hippopotamus]

❌Defeated: Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus 🥉 [beat by Western lowland gorilla]

❌Defeated: Chinese giant salamander - Andrias davidianus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]

🚫Ineligible: [edited in bad faith]

❌Defeated: Australopithecus - Australopithecus afarensis [beat by Platypus]

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Jim Chalmers

Andrew Charlton

Tanya Plibersek

Pauline Hanson

Patrick Gorman

Chris Bowen

Angus Taylor

Andrew Hastie

Sussan Ley

Paul Fletcher

Amanda Rishworth

Michelle Rowland

Matt Thistlethwaite

Catherine King

Julie Collins

Clare O'Neil

Jacinta Nampijinpa Price

Josh Frydenberg

Bill Shorten

Mark Dreyfus

Andrew Leigh

Phillip Thompson

Richard Marles

Jason Clare

Stephen Bates

Penny Wong

Ed Husic

Dan Tehan

Angie Bell

James McGrath

Tony Burke

Anika Wells

James Paterson

Linda Burney

Andrew Giles

Elizabeth Watson-Brown

Michael Sukkar

Robbie Katter

Clive Palmer

Adam Bandt

Peter Dutton

Barnaby Joyce

Other

Andrew Hastie

Pauline Hanson

Angus Taylor

Jacinta Nampijinpa Price

Barnaby Joyce

Josh Frydenberg

Sussan Ley

Automatic Voter Registration Act

Redistricting Reform (independent commissions for redistricting)

Automatic Voter Registration

Early voting

Mail-in voting

Election Day Reform (Holiday, or moving to a weekend)

Public Financing for Candidates

Banning Super PACs

Campaign contribution limitations (individual or corporate)

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC)

Campaign finance transparency (no dark money)

Ranked-Choice Voting

Approval Voting

Shortened Campaign Season (<=6 months for primary+general)

YES

Jim Chalmers

Tony Burke

Other

Tanya Plibersek

Bill Shorten

Richard Marles

Penny Wong

Jason Clare

Chris Bowen

Linda Burney

Mark Butler

Katy Gallagher

Pat Conroy

Mark Dreyfus

Catherine King

Jim Chalmers

Other

Tanya Plibersek

Bill Shorten

Penny Wong

Chris Bowen

YES

NO

YES