Shorter News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

93%chance

8707785924

OptionVotes

YES

18636

8827

What will be true of Taylor Swift's next album, The Life of a Showgirl?

Aug 12, 5:21 AMOct 16, 1:01 PM

284991

OptionProbability

Sabrina Carpenter will feature on at least one song

It will debut at #1 on the Billboard 200

Max Martin and Shellback will both be credited as producers on at least one song

It will have a lead single released at least a week before the album itself

At least one song will be 4:30 or longer

It will sweep the top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100

Wikipedia will list 'synth-pop' as a genre of the album (continuously for 24 hours)

It will have a music video released at least a week before the album itself

Aaron Dessner will be credited as a producer on at least one song

At least one song will be 2:30 or shorter

Jack Antonoff will be credited as a producer on at least one song

Jack Antonoff will be credited as a producer on at least half of the songs

It will have more than 15 songs

100

Will meta announce Its shutting down its metaverse by the end of 2026?

Mar 7, 3:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.09%chance

854276

OptionVotes

YES

2020

1054

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2027?

Jun 14, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.42%chance

351342

OptionVotes

YES

1154

928

Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

Apr 9, 4:13 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

70.13%chance

291047

OptionVotes

YES

1107

930

Will a mass driver be constructed on the Moon before 2100?

Jun 10, 12:45 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

65.09%chance

18826

OptionVotes

YES

1000

954

Will there be a terrorist attack motivated by climate change before 2030?

Feb 9, 3:26 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

79.32%chance

25747

OptionVotes

YES

1046

972

Will AI take over density functional theory by 2035?

Nov 27, 1:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.05%chance

10358

OptionVotes

YES

1122

880

Will any notable lost art be recovered by the end of 2029?

Sep 5, 5:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.96%chance

13325

OptionVotes

YES

1187

922

New SF Bay bridge any time through 2030

Sep 4, 9:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.59%chance

12248

OptionVotes

YES

1044

971

Will there be a skyhook space structure placed in LEO before 2063?

May 28, 3:20 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

67.72%chance

13234

OptionVotes

YES

1014

953

Will a nuclear reactor start operation before 2030 that transforms long-lived nuclear waste into shorter lived waste?

Aug 1, 8:25 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.46%chance

645

OptionVotes

YES

125

Shorter News

Prediction markets for Shorter

Prediction markets for Shorter

Prediction markets for Shorter

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

What will be true of Taylor Swift's next album, The Life of a Showgirl?

Will meta announce Its shutting down its metaverse by the end of 2026?

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2027?

Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

Will a mass driver be constructed on the Moon before 2100?

Will there be a terrorist attack motivated by climate change before 2030?

Will AI take over density functional theory by 2035?

Will any notable lost art be recovered by the end of 2029?

New SF Bay bridge any time through 2030

Will there be a skyhook space structure placed in LEO before 2063?

Will a nuclear reactor start operation before 2030 that transforms long-lived nuclear waste into shorter lived waste?

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