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Prediction markets for Sieve

What will be involved in cracking the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 14, 7:28 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

10545

OptionProbability

Quantum computing

New mathematics**

Artificial intelligence*

61

48

25

Will 2^1619-1 be factored by EOY 2030?

Oct 18, 8:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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