Silk News

Trump will be the POTUS

FED rates will be below 5% on 1st January 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be between 300M to 350M on 1st Jan 2025

At Least 1 earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or higher

1 or more Jan 6 rioters get pardoned

Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities

Elon removed as doge head

Pope dies

Yoon Suk Yeol impeachment upheld by supreme court

Its revealed that Elon Musk had more children then 13 already known

Famous global brand goes through a rebranding

GPT 5 releases

Russia retains de facto control over Crimea

Avatar: Fire and Ash released

Hollow Knight Silk song released

King Charles will be alive for the whole year of 2025

This whole market gets more than 300 traders

2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US

LEMMiNO releases a new video

Any incumbent world leader diagnosed with cancer after 28th January 2025

Biden gets hospitalised

FED rates will be below 4% on 31st December 2025

Yoon Suk Yeol convicted of insurrection

EF3+ Tornado Impacts Florida

In one of the monthly polls, >= 80.0% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that weak AGI has been achieved

Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI >= 97%

MKBHD marries his girlfriend Nikki Hair

At least one world leader (prime minister, president, or monarch) gets assassinated while in office

Early general elections in Pakistan

Attempt to assassinate trump in 2025

Department of Education ended by executive order (even if temporarily)

T1 three-peat as League of Legends world champions

Ali Khamenei assassisnated

Mike Johnson is not Speaker

Bitcoin reaches 150k sometimes during 2025

Ali Khamenei dies a natural death

In one of the monthly polls, >= 33.3% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that non-human intelligence has influenced Earth

Russia-Ukraine war will end in 2025

There will be less MAU at manifold in December 2025 then there would be in January 2025

In one of the monthly polls, a plurality of Manifold users declares the achievement of weak superintelligence

Attempted assassination on Zelensky in which he gets hurt but survives

Marco Rubio fired or "resigns" upon rumors of his impending termination

Dodgers win World Series

Los Ratones win against T1, or lose 2-3 (either case should resolve YES, if they don't play against each other this should be NO)

Californian independence gains enough signatures

Elections in Bangladesh come to pass (currently planned for late 2025 to early 2026)

At least one Premier of a Canadian province proposes joining the USA

A country leaves NATO

Phillies win the World Series

Biden dies

Harry and Meghan divorce

Saudi Arabia - Israel normalize relations

2025 hotter then 2024

Taylor Swift will be "single" anytime during 2025

Putin dies

After the release of GPT-5, every monthly Manifold poll results in a plurality of respondents agreeing that weak AGI has been achieved

Congress repeals any tariff

Apple will release first foldable smartphone during 2025

Chuck Schumer resigns

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80%

Ukraine internal coup attempt

Elon Musk diagnosed with COVID-19

Bethesda releases a new game in the Elder Scroll series

United States government acknowledges the existence of life anywhere other than on or close to Earth

China annexes Taiwan

Filibuster abolished

Zelensky Assassinated

Article 5 of NATO invoked

OpenAI o6 or any o6 variant released

FrontierMath solved (>= 80%) and model is available to any person in the United States willing to pay for it

Kate and William divorce

Sam Altman gets fired again

At least one Premier of a Canadian province takes a concrete step, such as holding a referendum, to join the USA

Any newspaper reports a US Default on any debt

Putin assassinated

NATO at war with Russia

Trump assassinated

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 90%

US-China war

A nuclear bomb explodes

2025 is the 15th "Year of Three Popes"

US debt ceiling will be scrapped during 2025

United States government acknowledges the existence of non-human intelligence on or close to Earth

One of the Millenium prize problems falls to a model

A country leaves the EU

The winds of winter by GRR Martin will release

USA claims intelligences of extra-terrestrial origin have credibly visited or sent technology to a location within our solar system in an official government statement

Los Ratones go to LoL Worlds

LK99 replicates at last

Greenland Joins USA

End of the world by celery

Ukraine joins NATO

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before June 30

A US state secedes from the union

51st US State

Peter Turkson elected Pope

GTA 6 releases

Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero

Harris will be the POTUS

Bitcoin will be > 100k on 1st January 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be below 300M on 1st Jan 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be above 350M on 1st Jan 2025

Jimmy Carter will be alive on 1st January 2025

Jimmy Carter will be alive on 31st December 2025

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before March 31

Francis is always Pope

New pope takes name "Francis"

First papal conclave >= 10 ballots

YES

2025

2026

Other

2023

NO

NO

YES

YES

NO

YES

YES

sea warfare

marble as a good

land warfare

Colosseum can be build

region inspired by Greece

Volcano Disaster

some buildings can be buffed with items

some ships can be buffed with items

region inspired by Egypt

purpura/purple as a good

players can build different temples that give bonus modifiers

land trade routes

sewage system

pottery as a good

salt as a good

water can be distributed with aqueducts

slaves as a population tier

silk as a good

interactive trading system inspired by the Silk Road

Hadrian's Wall can be build

region inspired by Persia

a NPC or Item is named Jorgensen

barbarians as enemies (for the combat system)

siege engines (for the combat system)

glassware as a good

honey as a good

furniture as a good

region inspired by Germania

diagonal building grid

88-90

91-93

87 or less

94-96