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Prediction markets for Small

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.49%chance

1157357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1856

1029

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

Aug 17, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

644627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1803

525

Will the switch from 100LL (leaded aviation gas) to 100UL (unleaded aviation gas) cause small airports to become a thing of the past due to a lack of sufficient revenue?

Nov 18, 8:32 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

77.35%chance

113705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

973

Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?

Sep 26, 6:44 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

34.93%chance

392670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

1087

[Metaculus] Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?

Nov 3, 5:26 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

15.09%chance

161177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1843

760

Will a small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) for electricity generation be operating in Australia by Jan 1 2035?

Aug 4, 2:58 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

23.41%chance

271172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

913

Will a Small Modular Reactor (SMR) enter commercial operation in the US before 2030?

Oct 9, 10:28 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

55.05%chance

12747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1145

771

AI "devops" #3: Will there be an AI that can manage a small cluster by 2030?

May 4, 9:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82.49%chance

11460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

326

108

If LMs store info as features in superposition, are there >300K features in GPT-2 small L7? (see desc)

May 29, 6:05 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

59.25%chance

13286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

990

How much small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) capacity in US by 2035?

Oct 16, 5:51 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

6229

OptionProbability

1 GW to 3 GW

<1 GW

3 GW to 10 GW

10 GW to 30 GW

>=30 GW

33

32

16

14

6

Will "Small Models Can Introspect, Too" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 23, 3:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22.54%chance

3172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1085

607

Will "AI-enabled coups: a small group could use AI ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 27, 5:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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