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Prediction markets for Small

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.15%chance

1147307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1903

957

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

Aug 17, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.43%chance

614562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1782

531

Will the switch from 100LL (leaded aviation gas) to 100UL (unleaded aviation gas) cause small airports to become a thing of the past due to a lack of sufficient revenue?

Nov 18, 8:32 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

77.35%chance

113705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

973

Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?

Sep 26, 6:44 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

36.36%chance

382620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1318

1115

Will a small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) for electricity generation be operating in Australia by Jan 1 2035?

Aug 4, 2:58 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

23.41%chance

271172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

913

[Metaculus] Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?

Nov 3, 5:26 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

18.03%chance

15922

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1588

811

When will small phones come back?

Feb 17, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8889

OptionProbability

Before 2036

Before 2035

Before 2030

Before 2031

Before 2032

Before 2033

Before 2034

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

75

66

52

50

50

50

50

48

45

15

Will a Small Modular Reactor (SMR) enter commercial operation in the US before 2030?

Oct 9, 10:28 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.78%chance

10415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

945

If LMs store info as features in superposition, are there >300K features in GPT-2 small L7? (see desc)

May 29, 6:05 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

59.25%chance

13286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

990

Will "Small Models Can Introspect, Too" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 23, 3:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22.54%chance

3172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1085

607

Able to read an article for a very small charge on New York Times by end of 2027?

Jan 21, 9:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.16%chance

475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

212

144

Will "AI-enabled coups: a small group could use AI ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 27, 5:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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