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Prediction markets for Small

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.34%chance

1086968

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1899

962

By January 2026, will we have a language model with similar performance to GPT-3.5 (i.e. ChatGPT as of Feb-23) that is small enough to run locally on the highest end iPhone available at the time?

Feb 13, 2:52 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

92.93%chance

264550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1739

875

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

Aug 17, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.93%chance

583966

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1411

675

Will the switch from 100LL (leaded aviation gas) to 100UL (unleaded aviation gas) cause small airports to become a thing of the past due to a lack of sufficient revenue?

Nov 18, 8:32 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

77.35%chance

113705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

973

Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?

Sep 26, 6:44 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

36.36%chance

382620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1318

1115

Will a small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) for electricity generation be operating in Australia by Jan 1 2035?

Aug 4, 2:58 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

23.41%chance

271172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

913

[Metaculus] Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?

Nov 3, 5:26 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

21.94%chance

14672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1338

873

Will a Small Modular Reactor (SMR) enter commercial operation in the US before 2030?

Oct 9, 10:28 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.78%chance

10415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

945

AI "devops" #3: Will there be an AI that can manage a small cluster by 2030?

May 4, 9:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

75.41%chance

9385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

128

If LMs store info as features in superposition, are there >300K features in GPT-2 small L7? (see desc)

May 29, 6:05 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

59.25%chance

13286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

990

Will the FDA approve MAIA Biotechnology's THIO-101 for the treatment of advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer by Jan 2030?

Oct 26, 3:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

84.32%chance

3111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

47

Will "AI-enabled coups: a small group could use AI ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 27, 5:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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