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Prediction markets for Smart

Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?

Aug 7, 9:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.86%chance

26967658

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

1051

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2027?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

88.27%chance

384317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2134

661

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.66%chance

434022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3633

1265

Will AI "smart glasses" be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027? (eg Meta Ray Bans)

Mar 25, 10:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

82.44%chance

443737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2178

414

Will Apple release a smart ring wearable product by the end of 2025?

May 9, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.53%chance

1093240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2770

748

Will Apple announce a Smart Ring before 2026?

Feb 22, 9:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.44%chance

362875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2532

689

Will Apple announce a smart ring wearable product by the end of 2025?

May 9, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.65%chance

222311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3079

541

Apple releases AR Smart Glasses by 2030

Jan 23, 3:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65%chance

182185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1448

632

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Oct 17, 6:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.97%chance

302129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

817

Will we be able to print a smart humanoid bot at home by 2030?

Jul 12, 4:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

231848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

Will a smart agent pass our Turing test by the end of 2025?

Feb 20, 11:12 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

42.71%chance

431527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

738

Will "Most smart and skilled people are outside of ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 16, 2:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.99%chance

3305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1269

962

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