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Prediction markets for Sonia

Will a Republican President choose Sonia Sotomayor's replacement?

Jul 1, 9:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.26%chance

9840466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11070

9040

Which Supreme Court Justice will retire or die next?

Jul 9, 4:57 PMJul 17, 3:59 AM

3810835

OptionProbability

Samuel Alito

Clarence Thomas

Sonia Sotomayor

John Roberts

Elena Kagan

Neil Gorsuch

Brett Kavanaugh

Amy Coney Barrett

Ketanji Brown Jackson

70

20

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?

Oct 9, 3:38 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6910697

OptionProbability

Samuel Alito

Clarence Thomas

Sonia Sotomayor

Chief John Roberts

Elena Kagan

Neil Gorsuch

Brett Cavanaugh

Amy Coney Barrett

Ketanji Brown Jackson

Other

69

21

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

Which SCOTUS justice will be the first to leave the bench?

Jul 22, 1:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

456809

OptionProbability

Samuel Alito

Clarence Thomas

Sonia Sotomayor

John Roberts

Elena Kagan

Niel Gorsuch

Amy Coney Barrett

Ketanji Brown Jackson

Brett Kavanaugh

75

17

4

1

1

1

1

1

0

Will Sonia Sotomayor still be on the Supreme Court at the end of 2026?

Apr 12, 5:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

92.6%chance

506577

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5328

1451

Who will the next SCOTUS Justice to leave the court be?

Nov 6, 10:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

405469

OptionProbability

Samuel Alito

Clarence Thomas

Sonia Sotomayor

John Roberts

Elena Kagan

Amy Coney Barrett

Ketanji Brown Jackson

Neil Gorsuch

Brett Kavanaugh

A Justice not yet seated

69

22

4

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

As 2029 begins, who will be a justice on the Supreme Court of the United States? [w/ user-added answers]

Nov 12, 12:07 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

193795

OptionProbability

Neil M. Gorsuch

Brett M. Kavanaugh

Amy Coney Barrett

Elena Kagan

Ketanji Brown Jackson

John G. Roberts, Jr.

Sonia Sotomayor

Clarence Thomas

Samuel A. Alito, Jr.

93

93

92

91

91

87

86

44

24

Who will be the last standing SCOTUS justice?

Apr 9, 2:44 PMApr 17, 3:59 AM

242915

OptionProbability

Ketanji Brown Jackson

Amy Coney Barrett

Neil Gorsuch

Brett Kavanaugh

John Roberts

Elena Kagan

Samuel Alito

Sonia Sotomayor

Clarence Thomas

22

17

14

13

9

9

5

5

4

Which Justices will cease to be members of the US Supreme Court before the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 5:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10775

OptionProbability

Samuel Alito

Clarence Thomas

Sonia Sotomayor

John Roberts

Elena Kagan

Neil Gorsuch

Ketanji Brown Jackson

Brett Kavanaugh

Amy Coney Barrett

66

24

9

5

4

4

4

3

3

Jose Luis Ricon, gwern, Sonia Joseph, Claire Wang, Laurens Gunnarson, and Laria Reynolds all appear in Final Fantasy 18?

Jun 5, 1:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.87%chance

4378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

442

23

Is Sonia Joseph destined to become a comedian by 2045?

Aug 9, 5:11 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

31.16%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will a fanfic of repligate, gwern, JDP, Sonia Joseph,andgaspode going thru Hogwarts together +saving the world by 2028

Jun 11, 5:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.02%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

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