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Prediction markets for Sov

Will Somaliland be an internationally-recognized sovereign state before 2040?

May 28, 8:00 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

76.12%chance

256327

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1578

730

Will the US officially recognize the sovereignty of the State of Palestine by 2030?

Mar 1, 12:37 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

21.08%chance

303347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1410

845

New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027?

Jun 11, 1:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

92756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4114

2467

SOAI#6: “AI neutrality” emerges as a foreign policy doctrine as some nations cannot or fail to develop sovereign AI

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 13, 12:06 AM

15.74%chance

202322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2314

432

Sovereign nation publicly declares bitcoin reserves by 2030?

Aug 9, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.95%chance

101567

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1392

718

Will Argentina successfully regain sovereignty over the Falklands by the end of 2027?

Jan 24, 6:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.26%chance

221214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1396

937

Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?

Aug 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.17%chance

9959

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1204

831

Will the US recognise Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands in 2026?

May 22, 11:36 PMJan 1, 1:59 AM

10.38%chance

6871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1851

857

Will the US annex a soveign state before the end of 2050

Dec 22, 10:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.18%chance

10822

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1521

657

Will any state claim part of the Moon's surface as its sovereign territory before 2040?

Dec 11, 8:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

51.86%chance

21764

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1164

804

Will the US sovereign wealth fund invest in Blackstone or TPG by 2028?

Feb 3, 11:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

38.46%chance

5482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

790

EU debt classified as sovereign before 2027?

Nov 20, 8:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.85%chance

3309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

939

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