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Prediction markets for Spicer

Will a non-Chromium based web browser be the most popular browser by the end of 2025?

Feb 16, 11:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.78%chance

35321730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9008

1501

Will Bethesda publicly release The Elder Scrolls VI before 2027?

Feb 19, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.2%chance

535873

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2126

443

Will Meta, Alphabet, Amazon or Microsoft invest in Conjecture before 2026?

Feb 4, 8:43 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

4.7%chance

174186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4710

422

Will any space station have artificial gravity before 2031?

May 10, 11:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.13%chance

351781

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1361

825

Will the Vast Haven-1 successfully reach orbit atop any SpaceX rocket, at any point in 2030?

May 10, 11:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.45%chance

15674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1073

951

Will there be a manned commercial space station in orbit at the end of 2025?

May 10, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.39%chance

10630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

743

100

Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?

Feb 27, 5:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.22%chance

21624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

754

Will Bethesda publicly release Fallout V before 2031?

Feb 19, 12:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.01%chance

16551

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

737

Will the Vast Haven-1 successfully reach orbit atop any SpaceX rocket, at any point in 2025?

May 10, 11:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.96%chance

5488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

524

36

Will there be a manned commercial space station in orbit at the end of 2030?

May 10, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.88%chance

13330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1198

881

Will I successfully complete an Ironman triathlon before 2027?

Dec 17, 7:17 PMJan 17, 12:00 AM

56%chance

10171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

973

Who will be the Prologue POV character in "The Winds of Winter" by George R.R. Martin?

May 6, 12:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

880

OptionProbability

A new character not mentioned previously in the series (including appendices)

Brynden Tully (the Blackfish)

Other

Jeyne Westerling

Whitesmile Wat

Edmure Tully

Ser Ilyn Payne

Ser Forley Prester

Maester Jon Vance

Sybell Spicer

30

15

15

9

9

5

5

5

5

5

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