OptionProbability
Elon Musk
Other
Jensen Huang
Larry Page
Larry Ellison
Sam Altman
Jeff Bezos
Mark Zuckerberg
Bernard Arnault
Sergey Brin
Satoshi Nakamoto
Donald Trump
Michael Saylor
Bill Gates
Warren Buffett
me
Steve Ballmer
Gautam Adani
Mukesh Ambani
An AGI
Brian Armstrong
Changpeng “CZ” Zhao
Tim Draper
Jack Dorsey
Winklevoss Tyler/Cameron
@Mira
Vladimir Putin
Michael Dell
Amancio Ortega
Carlos Slim Helu
Vitalik Buterin
Eric Schmidt
Masayoshi Son
Dave Tepper
Ken Griffin
Eduardo Saverin
Morris Chang
34
26
10
8
3
2
1
0
William Ding
Mohammed bin Salman
@jim
81
15
OptionVotes
YES
NO
621
76
None (full exoneration)
Medium (~1 first round pick, ~1M)
Small (no first round picks)
Large (multiple 1sts, up to 10M)
Minor (a small fine, no picks)
Massive (ban/void, similar to Joe Smith)
30
21
17
13
11
7