Steve Will Do It News

JD Vance

Other

Gavin Newsom

Marco Rubio

Jon Ossoff

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Kamala Harris

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Tucker Carlson

Ron DeSantis

Mark Kelly

Donald Trump (Sr.)

Andy Beshear

JB Pritzker

No 2028 Election

Thomas Massie

Steve Bannon

Nikki Haley

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vivek Ramaswamy

Joe Rogan

Kanye West

Donald Trump Jr.

Tim Scott

Dean Phillips

Ivanka Trump

Gretchen Whitmer

Tulsi Gabbard

Jimmy Donaldson(MrBeast)

Greg Abbott

Tim Walz

Mike Gallagher

Cory Booker

Raphael Warnock

Glenn Youngkin

Wes Moore

Ruben Gallego

Elissa Slotkin

Tammy Baldwin

Jacky Rosen

Shawn Fain

Abigail Spanberger

Mike Johnson

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

Trump visits Africa

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

The US leaves the World Health Organization

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

Fair elections in 2028

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

US national bitcoin reserve created

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Approval < 35%

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

A new supreme court justice appointed

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

USA experiences a recession.

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Vances have another kid

trump gets hospitalized

US Invasion of any North/South American country

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

McDonald's reopens in Russia

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump and Obama shake hands

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Dow rises above 65,000

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump says a racial slur

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Tesla

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Joe Biden dies

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

10% fewer government agencies

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

BTC falls below $38,000

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump gets covid (again)

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

New national park created

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Trump announces he is tired of winning

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Constitutional Amendment

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

NATO invokes Article 5

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

War is declared against another nation

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Anthony Fauci is indicted

JD Vance elected President

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Another pandemic

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

The department of education gets desolved

Starship lands on Mars

Record level unemployment

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump dies

Laura Loomer gets any government role

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Approval < 25%

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump gets shot

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

south park is canceled/discontinued

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump runs for a third term

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump extends his term past 4 years

54 or more Republican senate seats

Trump is assassinated

Cannabis is federally legalized

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

55 or more Republican senate seats

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

A national ban on gender-affirming care

"covfefe" posted again

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump threatens Israel with military action

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Repeal obamacare

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Constitutional Amendment

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump and Melania divorce

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump bans abortion nationwide

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump accurately quotes a Bible verse with its Book Chapter:Verse citation, verbally and without reading from a script/notes/autocue, excluding Genesis 1:1

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

New US national anthem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Mainstream Media

Letitia James

January 6th Committee

Jimmy Kimmel

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

LQBTQ / Trans People

Migrants

Jack Smith

Vaccine mandates

Ann Selzer

The Bidens (Joe, Ashley, Jill, and/or Hunter Biden)

Elon Musk

Anthony Fauci

Gen. Mark Milley

The New York Times (NYT)

Universities

Paper straws

Leakers

Blinken

Maine

Due Process

National Institutes of Health

Solar Energy

Miles Taylor

Alejandro Mayorkas

Stephen Colbert

John Bolton

Wind Energy

James Comey

John Brennan

Panama

JB Pritzker

Public Libraries

Alexander Vindman

Progressive YouTube Influencers

Tucker Carlson

The Metropolitan Museum of Art

Bruce Springsteen

Zohran Mamdani

Nancy Pelosi

The Atlantic

the National Archives

Disney

Any professional sports league

The American Psychiatric Association

Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

Denmark

Jeffrey Goldberg (Atlantic columnist)

Seth Myers

Bill Barr

Susan Collins (R-ME)

Michael Cohen

Mariann Edgar Budde

Wikipedia

Any non-Tesla electric car manufacturer

Ken Klippenstein

The American Medical Association

Christopher Steele

John Kelly

Emmanuel Macron

Jeff Bezos

Narendra Modi

Greenland

Any Manifold User

E. Jean Carroll

Fluoride

TIME magazine

Joe Biden

Jen Psaki (former White House Press Secretary and current MSNBC host)

Brad Raffensperger

WIRED Magazine

Kristi Noem

Liz Cheney

The San Diego Zoo

American sign language signers or interpreters

JD Vance

The population of penguins and seabirds on the Heard and McDonald Islands

Any fashion or cosmetics brand

Mike Pence

Barack Obama

Russell Vought

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Jezebel (website)

Black Nationals

SSRIs

Beyoncé

Pete Hegseth

Rosie O'Donnell

Alec Baldwin

Taylor Swift

BlueSky

Not Elected

Chappell Roan

Bill Burr

Elon Musk

Other

Jensen Huang

Larry Page

Sam Altman

Jeff Bezos

Larry Ellison

Mark Zuckerberg

Bernard Arnault

Masayoshi Son

An AGI

Satoshi Nakamoto

Sergey Brin

Donald Trump

Michael Saylor

Bill Gates

Warren Buffett

me

Steve Ballmer

Gautam Adani

Mukesh Ambani

Brian Armstrong

Changpeng “CZ” Zhao

Tim Draper

Jack Dorsey

Winklevoss Tyler/Cameron

@Mira

Vladimir Putin

Michael Dell

Amancio Ortega

Carlos Slim Helu

Vitalik Buterin

Eric Schmidt

Dave Tepper

Ken Griffin

Eduardo Saverin

Elon Musk

Other

Jeff Bezos

Bernard Arnault

Jensen Huang

Larry Page

Sergey Brin

Sam Altman

Larry Ellison

Steve Ballmer

William Ding

Michael Saylor

Mohammed bin Salman

Vladimir Putin

Michael Dell

Other

Elon Musk

Nikita Bier

Grok 5

Mahmoud Reza Banki

Grok 4

Shivon Zilis

Donald Trump Jr

Omead Afshar

Sriram Krishnan

John Legere

Sheryl Sandberg

Steve Davis

Maurizio Barbieri

Ged Tarpey

Mrbeast

Jack Dorsey

Floki

@kache

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Jason Calacanis

Jack

Mochi

Brad

Tripping

Simon

Daniel Tello

prismatic

Chad

Cactus

Dssc

Ziddletwix

Semiotic Rivalry

James Brownlie

Ben S

Ian Shea

Tim

Steve

RedzoneITG

DP

draaglom

AdamK

archvenison

jatloe

Miguel Sanchez

Zanda Zhu

Xi Jinping

Alex

Christopher Randles

JD Vance

Marco Rubio

Other

Tucker Carlson

Ron DeSantis

Donald Trump Jr.

Donald Trump

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Thomas Massie

Rand Paul

Nikki Haley

Brian Kemp

Tulsi Gabbard

Erika Kirk

Mike Lee

Pete Hegseth

Stephen Miller

Glenn Youngkin

Ted Cruz

Vivek Ramaswamy

Kristi Noem

Tim Scott

Josh Hawley

Spencer Cox

Kirby

Pit

Captain Falcon

Luigi

Donkey Kong

Jigglypuff

Lucina

Toon Link

Mario

Link

Samus

Pikachu

Ness

Peach

Bowser

Ice Climbers

Sheik

Zelda

Dr. Mario

Pichu

Falco

Marth

Young Link

Ganondorf

Roy

Meta Knight

Zero Suit Samus

Wario

Sonic

King Dedede

R.O.B

Wolf

Villager

Mega Man

Little Mac

Greninja

Shulk

Bowser Jr.

Duck Hunt

Ryu

Cloud

Bayonetta

Inkling

Ridley

Simon Belmont

Richter

King K. Rool

Isabelle

Piranha Plant

Steve

Other

Yoshi

Fox

Mewtwo

Mr. Game & Watch

Snake

Ike

PKMN Trainer

Diddy Kong

Lucas

Olimar

Lucario

Wii Fit Trainer

Rosalina & Luma

Mii Fighter

Palutena

Pac-Man

Robin

Corrin

Incineroar

Joker

Hero

Banjo-Kazooie

Terry Bogard

Other

Adam Back

Hal Finney

Len Sassaman

Nick Szabo

Sinclair Chen

Craig Wright

Satoshi Nakamoto

Peter Todd

An Intelligence Agency

Wei Dai

Dorian Nakamoto

Jack Dorsey

Steve Sokolowski

Curtis Yarvin

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Elon Musk

Vitalik Buterin

[INVALID]

@Mira

[Invalid]

Xavier Becerra

Katie Porter

Matt Mahan

Tom Steyer

Hot Together - The Pointer Sisters

Love Is A Long Road - Tom Petty

Everybody Have Fun Tonight - Wang Chung

Child Support - Zenglen

Turn Red - M Dot R

Gospel - Dr. Dre

Talkin' to Myself Again - Tammy Wynette

Take the Money and Run - Steve Miller Band

I Love Rock 'n' Roll - Joan Jett & the Blackhearts