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Prediction markets for Steve Wozniak

When will a robot reliably pass "The Coffee Test"?

Mar 22, 10:21 AMFeb 2, 10:59 PM

8516712

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

40

32

18

9

0

0

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

52.01%chance

11615266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1763

1202

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?

Mar 17, 3:30 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

91.84%chance

8713743

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2349

1035

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2035?

Dec 29, 8:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

92.41%chance

142253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

386

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2029?

Jul 9, 11:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.06%chance

221820

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1731

424

Will a robot capable of passing both the Coffee Test and a strong, adversarial Turing test be created before 2100?

Mar 19, 8:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.15%chance

171222

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1685

902

Will a human be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?

Mar 22, 11:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

231193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

779

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2027?

Jul 8, 1:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.72%chance

171163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1226

864

In what year will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test"?

Mar 30, 6:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

251105

OptionProbability

2028-2030

2025-2027

2031-2033

2034-2036

2037-2040

2041-2045

2046-2050

38

26

14

10

5

4

3

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2030?

Dec 29, 8:46 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

78%chance

20913

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1292

889

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2028?

Jul 9, 11:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29%chance

6531

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

888

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