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Prediction markets for Stone

In what year will Patrick Rothfuss' book The Doors of Stone be released?

Aug 24, 7:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

49.85%chance

444871

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1188

662

Will Israel return Lebanon/Hezbollah to the stone age before 2028?

Dec 27, 7:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.51%chance

253598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1951

826

Which will be released first, The Winds of Winter (ASoIaF #6) or Doors of Stone (KC #3)?

Jun 4, 6:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

293193

OptionProbability

The Winds of Winter

Doors of Stone

69

31

Will Destiny develop kidney stones in the next 10 years?

Jan 21, 11:33 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

17.11%chance

182168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1555

826

Which book will be released first; between "winds of winter", "Doors of Stone", and "Thorn of Emberlain"?

Aug 3, 9:03 PMAug 3, 10:59 PM

18947

OptionProbability

Thorn of Emberlain - Scott Lynch

Winds of Winter - GRR Martin

Doors of Stone - Patrick Rothfuss

70

21

10

Will Doors of Stone (Kingkiller Chronicles) be released before January 1st 2028?

Dec 1, 5:06 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30.52%chance

14555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

84

Which year will Patrick Rothfuss release "The Doors of Stone"?

Jan 2, 9:13 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10477

OptionProbability

2028

2027

Later than 2033 or never

2026

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2025

27

26

16

6

5

5

5

5

5

1

Will there be a widely read alternative to The Doors Of Stone written by AI released by 2027?

Nov 24, 3:11 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

13.31%chance

8214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

301

102

Will stoning happen in Russia-controlled territories before the end of the war?

May 27, 2:12 PMMay 27, 9:59 PM

30.72%chance

9130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

102

New Rolling Stones pinball machine before 2031?

Nov 28, 8:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.33%chance

437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

99

Will "Should you make stone tools?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 7:33 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will the book Alex Zhu (@zhukeepa) and the Sorcerer's Stone be written by EOY2045?

Sep 24, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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