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Prediction markets for Stone

Will Israel return Lebanon/Hezbollah to the stone age before 2028?

Dec 27, 7:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6.65%chance

264903

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2665

765

In what year will Patrick Rothfuss' book The Doors of Stone be released?

Aug 24, 7:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

49.85%chance

444871

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1188

662

Which will be released first, The Winds of Winter (ASoIaF #6) or Doors of Stone (KC #3)?

Jun 4, 6:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

303233

OptionProbability

The Winds of Winter

Doors of Stone

69

31

Will Destiny develop kidney stones in the next 10 years?

Jan 21, 11:33 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

16.49%chance

192218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1605

816

In what year will Patrick Rothfuss' book The Doors of Stone be released?

Feb 23, 10:11 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

151606

OptionProbability

Other

2027

2026

2024

2025

73

15

9

1

1

Which book will be released first; between "winds of winter", "Doors of Stone", and "Thorn of Emberlain"?

Aug 3, 9:03 PMAug 3, 10:59 PM

18947

OptionProbability

Thorn of Emberlain - Scott Lynch

Winds of Winter - GRR Martin

Doors of Stone - Patrick Rothfuss

70

21

10

Will there be a widely read alternative to The Doors Of Stone written by AI released by 2027?

Nov 24, 3:11 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

13.31%chance

8214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

301

102

Will "The Corner-Stone" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 4, 6:35 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.72%chance

2204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

985

New Rolling Stones pinball machine before 2031?

Nov 28, 8:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.33%chance

437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

99

Rolling Stones - Who will die next? Keith, Mick or Ronnie

Jan 1, 11:19 PMDec 31, 11:18 PM

230

OptionProbability

Keith

Mick

Ronnie

59

20

20

Will "Stone Age Billionaire Can't Words Good" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 10, 5:04 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.82%chance

227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

998

Will "Should you make stone tools?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 7:33 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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