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Prediction markets for Strate
Will the European Commission publish a new quantum strategy document within the next 60 days?
Jan 26, 8:22 PMMar 27, 8:21 PM
25%chance
345534
OptionVotes
1732
577
Will AI become a strategic geopolitical weapon by 2040?
Sep 5, 10:13 AMDec 31, 11:51 PM
80%chance
553582
OptionVotes
1081
902
Will the United States abandon it's policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2028?
May 6, 5:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
33.74%chance
331805
OptionVotes
1053
747
Will Elon Musk use the X rebrand as defense strategy during Twitter bankruptcy by December 2027?
Aug 12, 4:40 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
20.99%chance
191753
OptionVotes
1815
628
Will Nayib Bukele's Anti-Gang strategy be seen as a positive model in 2030?
Feb 25, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM
42.03%chance
13835
OptionVotes
1355
600
Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before 2030?
Dec 31, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
57.48%chance
17719
OptionVotes
1215
507
Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before the end of 2027?
Dec 31, 2:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
44.45%chance
25717
OptionVotes
1078
925
Will the United States abandon it's policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2030?
May 6, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
33.4%chance
14611
OptionVotes
1026
816
Will "AI Governance to Avoid Extinction: The Strate..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 19, 11:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
11.16%chance
1250
OptionVotes
1250
964
Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?
Sep 24, 6:29 PMDec 31, 7:29 PM
45.87%chance
3201
OptionVotes
1086
921
OptionVotes
1010
994
Will "Irrationality is Socially Strategic" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Feb 26, 8:45 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
172
OptionVotes
1000
1000