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Top stories

Louisiana Road Rage Shooting Kills Pregnant Teen; Suspect Faces Murder Charge

Louisiana Road Rage Shooting Kills Pregnant Teen; Suspect Faces Murder Charge

Authors

11

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Strate

Will Trump actually establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in his first year?

Jul 27, 9:53 PMFeb 1, 9:59 PM

16.83%chance

270131410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2223

450

Will AI become a strategic geopolitical weapon by 2040?

Sep 5, 10:13 AMDec 31, 11:51 PM

80%chance

553582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

902

Will "MIRI 2024 Communications Strategy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

May 29, 9:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

25.74%chance

111841

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1112

522

Will the United States abandon it's policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2028?

May 6, 5:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.2%chance

331729

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

786

Will Elon Musk use the X rebrand as defense strategy during Twitter bankruptcy by December 2027?

Aug 12, 4:40 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

26.77%chance

181382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1515

722

Will Nayib Bukele's Anti-Gang strategy be seen as a positive model in 2030?

Feb 25, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM

42.03%chance

13835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1355

600

Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before 2030?

Dec 31, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.48%chance

17719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

507

Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before the end of 2027?

Dec 31, 2:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.45%chance

25717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1078

925

Will the United States abandon it's policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2030?

May 6, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.4%chance

14611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

816

Will "AI Governance to Avoid Extinction: The Strate..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 19, 11:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?

Sep 24, 6:29 PMDec 31, 7:29 PM

45.87%chance

3201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

921

Will my battery redqueening strategy backfire?

May 16, 7:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.6%chance

16173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

994

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