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Prediction markets for Styles
Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030
Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.75%chance
10842699
OptionVotes
11769
8879
OptionProbability
15
8
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
1787
559
Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027
Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
71.07%chance
1298015
OptionVotes
1846
1470
Hikaru Nakamura and Magnus Carlsen play world-championship-style classical match before 2030
Feb 25, 12:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.45%chance
111500
OptionVotes
1859
538
Will a single model have all the upsides o1-style RL with none of the downsides at 2027?
Nov 20, 5:32 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
60.14%chance
11872
OptionVotes
1228
814
How long until AI can generate original pages of an "I Spy" style picture book?
Jan 7, 8:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
42.92%chance
17822
OptionProbability
1097
737
Will Manifold add Metaculus style probability-distribution answers before 2033?
Dec 10, 8:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
73.63%chance
13657
OptionVotes
1265
856
Will I use "just walk out" style grocery stores more often than not in 2030?
Mar 24, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.27%chance
18640
OptionVotes
1352
876
Will AI fully automate Cochrane-style systematic reviews by end of 2027?
Oct 7, 3:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
69.23%chance
2600
OptionVotes
1500
667
Ten years after Trump’s departure from politics, will he see a George Bush style approval ratings bump?
Apr 21, 2:35 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM
23.77%chance
16485
OptionVotes
1197
914
AI capable of generating freehand animation style by 2027?
Nov 3, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50.96%chance
4135
OptionVotes
1019
981