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Sullivan News

    Prediction markets for Sullivan

    Which party will win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?

    Nov 27, 4:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    20689590

    OptionProbability

    Mary Peltola (D)

    Dan Sullivan (R)

    Other

    98

    2

    0

    Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.'s vote total exceed Peltola's winning margin in Alaska's Senate race?

    Oct 31, 5:24 AMNov 11, 11:59 PM
    28.04%chance
    2510812

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2986

    1427

    First Round of Alaska Senate winner?

    Oct 31, 8:51 PMNov 8, 10:59 AM
    209026

    OptionProbability

    Mary Peltola

    Dan Sullivan (Incumbent)

    Other

    95

    5

    0

    Which case will have its central holding overturned before the scheduled end of Donald Trump's term as president?

    Nov 24, 4:33 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM
    268613

    OptionProbability

    Bowers v. Hardwick

    Humphrey's Executor v. United States

    Williams v. Florida (number of jurors)

    Locke v. Davey

    Carey v. Population Services International (Might be N/A'ed. See Below)

    Employment Division v. Smith

    Morrison v. Olson

    The Insular Cases

    Carey v. Population Services International (Holding regarding the restrictions on the distribution of contraceptives)

    Hill v. Colorado

    Arizona v. United States

    Nixon v. General Services Administration

    Plyler v. Doe

    Carey v. Population Services International (Holding regarding the advertisement of contraceptives)

    Brown v. Entertainment Merchants Association

    New York Times v. Sullivan

    Kennedy v. Louisiana

    Mapp v. Ohio

    Texas v. Johnson

    Jacobson v. Massachusetts

    The Slaughter House Cases

    Bivens v. Six Unknown Named Agents

    NLRB v. Noel Canning

    United States v. Nixon

    Trump v. Barbara

    Griswold v. Connecticut

    United States v. Wong Kim Ark (see note in comments)

    Gideon v. Wainwright

    Miranda v. Arizona

    Reynolds v. Sims

    Romer v. Evans

    Ex parte Young

    Lawrence v. Texas

    Obergefell v. Hodges

    Batson v. Kentucky

    Loving v. Virginia

    100

    100

    76

    48

    46

    35

    35

    34

    34

    31

    30

    27

    27

    26

    24

    22

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    16

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    12

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    6

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    3

    2

    🎞️If the AFI Top 100 Movie list updates again, which films from last time will make it again?

    Mar 4, 4:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    286636

    OptionProbability

    Citizen Kane

    Schindler's List

    The Godfather

    Casablanca

    Raging Bull

    Singin in the Rain

    Vertigo

    The Shawshank Redemption

    Gone with the Wind

    The Wizard of Oz

    City Lights

    The Sound of Music

    West Side Story

    Lawrence of Arabia

    Bridge on the River Kwai

    Treasure of the Sierra Madre

    King Kong (original)

    Bonnie and Clyde

    Midnight Cowboy

    The Philadelphia Story

    It Happened One Night

    The Graduate

    To Kill a Mockingbird

    All About Eve

    The Maltese Falcon

    One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest

    Dr Strangelove

    Jaws

    Star Wars

    Psycho

    2001 A Space Odyssey

    Sunset Boulevard

    The General

    On The Waterfront

    It's a Wonderful Life

    Some Like it Hot

    The Grapes of Wrath

    ET the Extra Terrestrial

    Mr Smith Goes to Washington

    Double Indemnity

    Apocalypse Now

    Godfather Part II

    Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (original animated)

    Annie Hall

    A Streetcar Named Desire

    Rear Window

    Taxi Driver

    The Deer Hunter

    M*A*S*H*

    North by Northwest

    Rocky

    The Gold Rush

    Sullivan's Travels

    Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring

    Chinatown

    High Noon

    Intolerance

    Nashville

    Shane

    Duck Soup

    Network

    The African Queen

    Raiders of the Lost Ark

    Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf

    Unforgiven

    The Searchers

    Saving Private Ryan

    A Clockwork Orange

    Cabaret

    Tootsie

    Do The Right Thing

    American Graffiti

    Pulp Fiction

    12 Angry Men

    Platoon

    Silence of the Lambs

    Titanic

    The Sixth Sense

    Goodfellas

    Toy Story

    Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid

    In the Heat of the Night

    Modern Times

    The Wild Bunch

    Spartacus

    A Night at the Opera

    Swing Time

    Sophie's Choice

    The Last Picture Show

    The Best Years of our Lives

    All the President's Men

    Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans

    Easy Rider

    Bringing Up Baby

    Yankee Doodle Dandy

    The Apartment

    Forrest Gump

    Blade Runner

    Ben-Hur

    The French Connection

    97

    97

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    67

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    65

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    63

    57

    56

    56

    47

    Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?

    Dec 16, 2:30 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    8.99%chance
    293990

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3149

    368

    Which people on the Kash Patel list of "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" from his book will be investigated?

    Dec 14, 5:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
    152884

    OptionProbability

    John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump

    John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

    James Comey – Former FBI Director

    Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows

    James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN

    John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI

    Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama

    Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden

    Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama

    Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden

    Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump

    Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States

    Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump

    Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella

    John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama

    Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

    Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm

    Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein

    Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump

    Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama

    Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden

    Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

    Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden

    Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding

    James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter

    Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations

    Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump

    Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States

    Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump

    Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division

    Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm

    Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein

    Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller

    Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General

    Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump

    Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office

    Joe Biden – President of the United States

    Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI

    Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London

    Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions

    Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump

    Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm

    Curtis Heide – FBI Agent

    Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration

    Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama

    Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump

    Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command

    Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump

    Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection

    Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs

    Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare

    Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General

    Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development

    Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division

    Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm

    Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"

    Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump

    Nellie Ohr – Former CIA Employee and Independent Contractor for Fusion GPS

    Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump

    Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel

    100

    100

    100

    82

    79

    76

    68

    68

    66

    66

    66

    58

    57

    56

    56

    51

    49

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    41

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    31

    31

    31

    31

    27

    27

    24

    0

    🎞️If the AFI Top 100 Movie list updates again, what will the ranking order of films be?

    Mar 3, 6:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    7874

    OptionProbability

    High Noon

    The Gold Rush

    Sophie's Choice

    Goodfellas

    The French Connection

    Pulp Fiction

    The Last Picture Show

    Do The Right Thing

    Blade Runner

    Yankee Doodle Dandy

    Toy Story

    Ben-Hur

    The General

    On The Waterfront

    It's a Wonderful Life

    Chinatown

    The Grapes of Wrath

    ET the Extra Terrestrial

    To Kill a Mockingbird

    Mr Smith Goes to Washington

    Double Indemnity

    The Maltese Falcon

    Godfather Part II

    One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest

    Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (original animated)

    Annie Hall

    Bridge on the River Kwai

    The Best Years of our Lives

    Treasure of the Sierra Madre

    The Sound of Music

    King Kong (original)

    Bonnie and Clyde

    Midnight Cowboy

    The Philadelphia Story

    Shane

    It Happened One Night

    A Streetcar Named Desier

    Rear Window

    Intolerance

    Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring

    West Side Story

    Taxi Driver

    The Deer Hunter

    M*A*S*H*

    North by Northwest

    Jaws

    Rocky

    Nashville

    Duck Soup

    Sullivan's Travels

    American Graffiti

    Cabaret

    Network

    The African Queen

    Raiders of the Lost Ark

    Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf

    Unforgiven

    Tootsie

    A Clockwork Orange

    Saving Private Ryan

    The Shawshank Redemption

    Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid

    Silence of the Lambs

    In the Heat of the Night

    Forrest Gump

    All the President's Men

    Modern Times

    The Wild Bunch

    The Apartment

    Spartacus

    Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans

    Titanic

    Easy Rider

    A Night at the Opera

    Platoon

    12 Angry Men

    Bringing Up Baby

    The Sixth Sense

    Swing Tie

    Raging Bull

    Singin in the Rain

    Vertigo

    City Lights

    The Searchers

    Psycho

    2001 A Space Odyssey

    Sunset Boulevard

    The Graduate

    Dr Strangelove

    Some Like it Hot

    Schindler's List

    The Wizard of Oz

    Apocalypse Now

    Star Wars

    All About Eve

    Lawrence of Arabia

    Gone with the Wind

    Casablanca

    The Godfather

    Citizen Kane

    66

    62

    56

    56

    56

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    50

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    19

    16

    Who will be the next American men's soccer phenom? (breaks record for youngest UEFA Champions League appearance)

    Mar 28, 1:50 PMMay 5, 3:59 AM
    5841

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Kairo Smith-Phillips

    Cavan Sullivan

    Astin Mbaye

    Da’vian Kimbrough

    Manu Romero

    Diego Kochen

    Maximo Carrizo

    Julian Hall

    23

    20

    18

    18

    13

    3

    3

    1

    1

    Will the US Senate confirm an opposite-party Supreme Court nominee before 2030?

    Feb 21, 1:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    16.06%chance
    18526

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1292

    1016

    Will Chuck Grassley serve out his term in the US Senate?

    Nov 24, 9:45 PMJan 3, 4:59 AM
    85.07%chance
    14335

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    210

    26

    Will the Fake Dan Sullivan Effect the Results of the Alaska Senate Election?

    Oct 29, 5:44 AMDec 1, 5:00 AM
    28%chance
    15257

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    113

    40

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