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Prediction markets for Summers

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

6.73%chance

24063435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3564

540

Will the 2028 Summer Olympics be cancelled or moved out of LA?

Jun 9, 9:59 PMJul 20, 12:00 AM

6.08%chance

134728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3930

254

Will the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026?

Aug 15, 12:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.66%chance

234671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3860

787

Will the USA get gold in Flag Football at the 2028 Summer Olympics?

Oct 17, 12:39 AMJul 22, 3:59 AM

94.08%chance

403502

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2301

834

Which NFL players will play for the Team USA flag football team at the 2028 LA Summer Olympics?

Aug 21, 2:47 AMAug 15, 3:59 AM

62018

OptionProbability

Tom Brady

Patrick Mahomes

Jalen Carter

Saquon Barkley

Caleb Williams

Christian McCaffrey

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Taliese Fuaga

Stefon Diggs

Travis Kelce

No NFL Players

55

43

43

31

31

31

31

31

31

5

5

Will the U.S. win the gold medal in Men's Basketball at the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles?

Aug 11, 1:46 AMOct 2, 4:59 AM

71.04%chance

202005

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

638

Will Tom Brady win a medal in the 2028 Summer Olympics?

Jan 16, 2:03 AMJul 30, 11:59 PM

14.55%chance

71532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2423

413

Will the USA win the most Gold medals by the end of the 2028 LA Summer Olympics?

Aug 12, 4:42 PMAug 21, 3:59 AM

84.93%chance

11980

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

943

Will India win a gold medal in the men's Twenty20 Cricket at the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles?

Aug 13, 5:21 AMSep 20, 2:29 PM

57.16%chance

10847

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

140

Will the Arctic be ice-free in summer by the year 2050?

Apr 23, 12:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

74.35%chance

12524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

881

Will either of the men’s 1500m or Mile world records be broken by the end of the 2028 Summer Olympics?

Feb 6, 2:31 PMJul 30, 11:59 PM

37.17%chance

3300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

769

Will Russia or Russian Olympic Committee (ROC) be allowed to compete in the 2028 Summer Olympics?

Jan 23, 9:24 PMOct 1, 3:59 AM

47.68%chance

1062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

255

203

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