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Prediction markets for Sy

Was synthetic video data generated and used in training Sora?

Feb 16, 11:40 AMDec 15, 9:59 PM

36.12%chance

15173304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2118

667

Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?

Feb 3, 2:59 PMDec 31, 10:00 AM

33.38%chance

26143162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6999

1910

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of...

Dec 5, 2:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1839309

OptionProbability

Medium or higher on Cybersecurity

Medium or higher on Model Autonomy

High or higher on CBRN

High or higher on Persuasion

100

100

65

45

Which UFC fighters will both remain undefeated and stay on the UFC roster through 2025?

Jun 17, 2:53 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

2422451

OptionProbability

Ilia Topuria

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Movsar Evloev

Malcolm Wellmaker

Jacobe Smith

Azamat Murzakanov

Navajo Stirling

Michael Morales

Andre Lima

Aliaskhab Khizriev

Lerone Murphy

Mansur Abdul-Malik

Torrez Finney

Rafael Estevam

Mario Pinto

Nurullo Aliev

Hyun Sung Park

Farid Basharat

Khamzat Chimaev

Tallison Teixeira

Ian Machado Garry

Bo Nickal

Umar Nurmagomedov

Tatsuro Taira

Muhammad Mokaev

Sharaputdin Magomedov

Payton Talbott

Danny Barlow

Jhonata Diniz

Stewart Nicoll

Clayton Carpenter

Jean Matsumoto

Oumar Sy

Wang Cong

Raffael Cerqueira

Daniel Marcos

Tatiana Suarez

Rei Tsuruya

Mick Parkin

Hyder Amil

Diyar Nurgozhay

92

86

79

76

76

69

66

63

63

60

51

50

50

50

50

50

50

39

36

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

will human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?

Nov 7, 12:59 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

33.35%chance

2720656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6224

5524

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.45%chance

4719184

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1306

760

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.81%chance

114493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10081

9577

Will Twitter suffer an unrecoverable system failure by the end of 2025?

Mar 25, 8:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.41%chance

343805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2315

774

Will there be Kessler Syndrome before 2053?

Oct 24, 5:34 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

36.16%chance

382202

OptionVotes

NO

YES

985

978

Will Tamay Besiroglu win his Deep Learning vs Program Synthesis bet with Mike Knoop?

Oct 28, 1:24 AMNov 4, 6:59 AM

86.59%chance

142088

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2541

393

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4652

3621

Adnan Syed returns to jail before 2040 (serial podcast)

Jun 2, 1:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.77%chance

9274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

234

73

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