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Prediction markets for Taing

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

63.64%chance

34402754093

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12404

7868

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.58%chance

904510910

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16189

11566

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

86.08%chance

503200664

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5243

1084

Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21%chance

502150372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3140

2098

If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?

Nov 12, 2:34 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

55.99%chance

27893250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2472

1266

Will there be >20% semiconductor-specific tariffs lasting over a month by the end of 2025?

Aug 2, 10:11 PMDec 31, 7:00 AM

2.74%chance

4263920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

73275

3001

Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025?

Jan 22, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.31%chance

2555029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

40480

5753

Will Trump's use of IEEPA to enact tariffs without congress be ruled unlawful?

Mar 11, 1:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.57%chance

3941910

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16264

6149

Is the Hyperliquid tariff trader a Trump admin insider?

Oct 11, 12:50 AMJan 1, 1:41 AM

11.61%chance

1728233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27586

3625

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.32%chance

8821179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13505

8680

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

23.44%chance

88041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15910

7208

Will "We might be missing some key feature of AI ta..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 22, 6:43 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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