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Prediction markets for Taing

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.5%chance

34302735500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12651

7730

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.76%chance

873487030

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16798

10442

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

82.45%chance

495196105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4494

1223

Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.8%chance

492141868

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3167

2091

If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?

Nov 12, 2:34 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

58.2%chance

26785991

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2561

1198

China blockades Taiwan in 2025? (media reports)

Jan 14, 7:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.09%chance

5631829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22383

7194

Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025?

Jan 22, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.01%chance

2125056

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29527

6515

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.41%chance

8720078

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12408

8996

Will Trump's use of IEEPA to enact tariffs without congress be ruled unlawful?

Mar 11, 1:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.82%chance

1619372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11794

8479

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

30.29%chance

75041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12910

8301

Will there be >20% semiconductor-specific tariffs lasting over a month by the end of 2025?

Aug 2, 10:11 PMDec 31, 7:00 AM

39.44%chance

345009

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11378

10786

Will "We might be missing some key feature of AI ta..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 22, 6:43 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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