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Prediction markets for Tal

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

89%chance

530230132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12091

5829

In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Feb 20, 10:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

92%chance

479101961

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8074

991

In which year will Nassim Nicholas Taleb publish his next book

Jun 15, 4:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

525990

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2027-2028

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2024-2025

2025-2026

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

36

19

12

7

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?

May 26, 12:16 PMMay 26, 1:59 PM

56.11%chance

589163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1131

884

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?

Sep 24, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.41%chance

626300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1121

710

There would be an NBA player over 8ft tall by 2045

Aug 5, 11:13 PMAug 13, 4:59 AM

25%chance

46100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

77.79%chance

255750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1872

534

Will the winner of the 2028 U.S. presidential election be taller than the runner-up?

Feb 25, 4:53 PMJan 6, 11:59 PM

58.28%chance

111122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

778

In 2028, will at least 35m (1/10) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Mar 17, 6:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.56%chance

20976

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1307

865

Will there be a major uprising against Taliban government in Afghanistan by 2030?

Aug 17, 3:18 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.42%chance

23749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

788

In 2028, will at least 100m Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Mar 17, 7:03 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.36%chance

16677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

879

Will the Taliban represent Afghanistan at the United Nations before 2030?

Dec 26, 4:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62.59%chance

17556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

817

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