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Prediction markets for Tal

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

86.01%chance

504200667

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5225

1087

In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Feb 20, 10:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

92%chance

468100497

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8074

991

In which year will Nassim Nicholas Taleb publish his next book

Jun 15, 4:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

525990

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2027-2028

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2024-2025

2025-2026

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

36

19

12

7

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will there be official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelenskyy before Aug 2026?

Aug 13, 1:00 PMAug 13, 10:59 PM

39.09%chance

16625702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4239

2521

Will AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?

May 26, 12:16 PMMay 26, 1:59 PM

70.92%chance

506882

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1562

640

Will Destiny talk to Joe Rogan before the end of 2025?

Mar 11, 5:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.05%chance

346359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5709

31

There would be an NBA player over 8ft tall by 2045

Aug 5, 11:13 PMAug 13, 4:59 AM

25%chance

46100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?

Sep 24, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.04%chance

585879

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1220

562

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

78.44%chance

245740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1907

524

In 2028, will at least 35m (1/10) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Mar 17, 6:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.66%chance

20926

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1257

881

Will there be a major uprising against Taliban government in Afghanistan by 2030?

Aug 17, 3:18 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.42%chance

23749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

788

In 2028, will at least 100m Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Mar 17, 7:03 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.36%chance

16677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

879

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