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Prediction markets for Tally

2026 Winter Olympics: Most Gold Medals

Jan 11, 1:59 AMFeb 22, 11:59 PM

251932

OptionProbability

Norway

United States

Other

Germany

91

6

3

1

2026 Winter Olympics: Which Nation Will Top the Total Medal Tally?

Feb 6, 5:22 PMFeb 22, 11:59 PM

17547

OptionProbability

Norway

USA

Germany

Canada

Italy

China

Other

79

13

2

2

2

1

1

Will "Jaan Tallinn's 2024 Philanthropy Overview" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 30, 7:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.19%chance

3520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

936

Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?

Jan 17, 12:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.9%chance

9484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1386

804

Will there be a large protest across US based on a political/ economical/ social issue?

Sep 30, 10:27 AMMar 31, 9:58 AM

75.79%chance

9335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

177

57

Will an MLB player hit 70+ homeruns in MLB sanctioned games during CY2026?

Oct 19, 7:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34%chance

5194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

72

Candidate receives 50.00%+ in first round of Maine dem senate primary?

Dec 21, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2152

OptionProbability

Graham Platner receives 50.00%+ in first round

No candidate receives 50.00%+ in first round

Janet Mills receives 50.00%+ in first round

Any other candidate receives 50.00%+ in first round

47

29

22

2

Will Nathan Lyons over take Shane Warne?

Dec 22, 5:17 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

22.63%chance

5117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

54

First AFL club to reach 17 senior VFL/AFL premierships

Feb 1, 10:27 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

18111

OptionProbability

Carlton

Collingwood

Essendon

Other

46

30

18

5

Will people like the Greenland resolution?

Jan 20, 6:54 PMDec 31, 6:52 PM

61.78%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

79

Which club will be the first to win six premierships in the AFL era?

Sep 28, 4:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

230

OptionProbability

Brisbane Lions

Hawthorn

Geelong Cats

Other

45

29

13

13

Give me guitar pun names.

Feb 9, 5:06 AM

00

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