T5: LLM gives <=50% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029
T3: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026
T2: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2025
B: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, drops down to <=70% confidence from today's "85-95%" confident, by mid 2025
T4: LLM gives <=60% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026
T6: LLM gives <=40% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029
T7: LLM gives >=20% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Unmodified, Collected Virus" [12.5% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029
V: Within 1 year of Xi Jingping's death, China's position on Covid origins shifts significantly, as judged by LLM [subjective]
Proof that most large cities in China have labs working on coronaviruses comparable to Wuhan, a claim alleged by the Wikipedia article, but not backed up with references, by mid 2024
T1: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2024
E3: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2028
O: Intermediate Host Identification of an animal bridging the gap from bats to humans, by mid 2029
H: Any type of information leak from Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026
D2: Fauci passes away by mid 2029
P: Discovery of an animal precursor to Covid-19 [actually finding a living animal with the virus in it, plausibly back-dateable to the time before the outbreak], by mid 2026
G: Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus comes out for lab leak by mid 2026
J: Identification of an animal reservoir for Covid-19 nearby Wuhan by mid 2027
S2: Disclosure by any means of significant parts of the virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026
Q: WHO researchers are allowed into WIV and have unfettered access by mid 2026
R: Large document leak from WIV of any type, mentioned in major western media, or publicly available, by mid 2026
N: An earlier center of Covid-19 outbreak is discovered, far away from Wuhan, weakening lab-leak theory by mid 2028
C: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, softens to <=50% confidence, mid year 2025 (see B)
U: Any type of release of significant staff health records of WIV by mid 2029
W: Within 1 year of Fauci's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)
X: Within 1 year of Biden's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)
S1: Intentional release of the entire virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026
D1: Fauci passes away by mid 2025
E1: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2024
E2: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2026
I: News of a defection from someone significant who worked at Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026
M: Zhi Shengli disappears by mid 2028
A: Wikipedia page "SARS-CoV2-2" no longer clearly states it's of zoonotic origin, by mid 2025
D3: Fauci passes away due to Covid
K: Bill Gates comes out for lab leak by mid 2025
F: Obama or either Clinton comes out for lab leak by mid 2024
