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Top stories

Niskanen Center Paper Charts Cross-Partisan ‘Abundance’ Movement

US Domestic Policy

Niskanen Center Paper Charts Cross-Partisan ‘Abundance’ Movement

Authors

4

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Teles

Will Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?

Aug 24, 10:15 PMAug 25, 8:59 PM

6.37%chance

10157956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5848

493

Hunger Games with Teleoperated Robots, before 2028?

Oct 30, 3:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.84%chance

414917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2305

434

Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology?

Jul 23, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.74%chance

321956

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6059

5939

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.61%chance

271389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1167

885

Will a televised football (soccer) match between humanoid robots and professional humans occur before 2030?

Mar 22, 6:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

33.35%chance

21846

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

667

Will the Telethon cast perform the "Six-Seven" when they reach 67 million pesos?

Aug 16, 2:33 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

66.81%chance

10756

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1419

705

Will there be a televised match between a robot and a top-10 human tennis player by 2035?

Nov 23, 11:30 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

51.35%chance

24730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

959

Will the Lazuli telescope see first light before 2030?

Jan 8, 7:39 PMDec 31, 7:00 PM

44.83%chance

7696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

901

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Sep 3, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.22%chance

17626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

962

Pavel Durov no longer CEO of Telegram by January 1st, 2028

Dec 12, 3:21 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

30.08%chance

7538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1524

656

Will a televised American Football match between teams of humanoid robots occur before 2035?

Mar 22, 5:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

33.53%chance

14431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

959

Quantum Telescopes by 2030?

Feb 15, 12:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.42%chance

11246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

987

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