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Terence Tao News

Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?

Aug 21, 7:36 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

12862925260

OptionProbability

Other

Elon Musk

Bill Gates

Jeff Bezos

Mr. Beast

Barack Obama

Donald Trump

Gwern Branwen

Satoshi Nakomoto

Robert Caro

Kamala Harris

Jensen Huang

Sarah Paine

Sam Altman

Narendra Modi

JD Vance

roon

Geoffrey Hinton

The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)

Terence Tao

Ilya Sutskever

No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

Tim Cook

Satya Nadella

Justin Trudeau

Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)

Xi Jinping

Dalai Lama

Buffett

Taylor Swift

Joe Biden

Lebron James

GPT-5

Bill Clinton

A basketball player

Vladimir Putin

Benjamin Netanyahu

Jesus Christ

Rona Wang

Jose Luis ricon

Kettner Griswold

James Koppel

Sam Bankman-Fried

Nancy Pelosi

Rishi Sunak

Keir Starmer

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Jimmy Carter

George W Bush

Al Gore

Michael Jackson

your mom

Mitt Romney

one or both of his parents

A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"

Connor Duffy

MBS

pope Francis

Scott Alexander

Leonardo DiCaprio

RFK Jr

Sydney Sweeney

growing_daniel

greg16676935420

Deadpool

Shaq

Oprah Winfrey

Yoshua Bengio

Sundar Pichai

Scarlett Johansson

Paul McCartney

[duplicate]

Neel Nanda

King Charles

Kim Jong Un

Gavin Newsom

Royal Palace

[cancelled option]

Daniel Yergin

Peter Singer

Gabe Newell

Neil Gorsuch

Stephen Breyer

Dmitry Medvedev

JK Rowling

Shrek

Sam Hyde

[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

Peter Thiel

Marques Brownlee

Vivek Ramaswamy

Donald Trump Jr.

Ben Shindel

Javier Milei

Dylan Patel

Joe Rogan

Marc Andreessen

Mike Tyson

Jake Paul

Matt Gaetz

16

13

12

11

7

4

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2037

Dec 22, 7:04 PMJun 30, 6:59 AM

46.38%chance

161699

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

930

Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2028

Dec 22, 6:14 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

19.66%chance

181675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2022

495

Will Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year?

Oct 31, 5:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

70.1%chance

17324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

235

192

Will the Twin prime Conjecture be proven before 2030?

Jun 19, 12:54 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

18.31%chance

7194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

47

Are men more likely to be geniuses or quasi-geniuses than women?

Jan 25, 6:43 PM

190

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