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Top stories

Mississippi Museum Displays Gun Used in Emmett Till Lynching

Mississippi Museum Displays Gun Used in Emmett Till Lynching

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5 months ago

Train Journey Commemorates 70th Anniversary of Emmett Till Murder

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Will Joe Biden live till the end of 2028?

May 19, 1:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.2%chance

6912941

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1284

478

Will I bet at least 5 mana each day on Aella's 2027 baby market till its conclusion?

Dec 9, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.53%chance

105704

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1476

678

Will Mark Zuckerberg cure all human desises till the end of the century?

Oct 23, 12:36 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5.36%chance

152213

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NO

2061

888

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief till

Dec 22, 7:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71972

OptionProbability

End of June 2026

End of 2026

End of 2027

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End of 2029

End of 2030

85

79

50

44

36

27

Will we have androids with full human labor capabilities under 10K$ till 2030?

Jan 6, 5:15 AMApr 30, 5:59 PM

9.95%chance

191232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

940

Will Donald Trump live till the end of 2028?

May 19, 1:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.11%chance

261185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

303

173

Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

68.34%chance

191064

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1171

900

Will the Chinese communist party stay in power till 2033?

Sep 19, 7:44 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

76.25%chance

19744

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

577

Will my portfolio outperform the S&P 500 from now till December 31st, 2026?

Dec 6, 3:40 AMDec 31, 3:35 AM

49.15%chance

6289

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NO

1017

983

Will Enhanced Game continue running till 2030?

Feb 1, 6:12 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

19.39%chance

11250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

891

Will ""Buckle up bucko, this ain't over till it's o..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 6, 5:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.44%chance

271

OptionVotes

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YES

1047

754

Successful Mercury landing till 2040?

Apr 22, 7:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.15%chance

342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

172

100

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