OptionProbability
Ernie
Joshua
Chris/Strutheo
Jensen Huang
Sundar Pichai
Larry Page
Sergey Brin
Bill Gates
Bram Cohen
Vitalik Buterin
Demis Hassabis
Lex Fridman
Xi Jinping
Kim Jong Un
Jeff Dean
Isaac King
Geoffrey Hinton
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Ilya Sutskever
Austin (manifold)
Glenn Shotwell
Emad Mostaque
Greg Brockman
Bruce Schneier
AGM (chaos monkey)
Kind Edward
Patrick Collison
Balaji
Stewart Butterfeld
Prince Harry
Tim Sweeney
Peter Thiel
Garry Tan
Jessica Livingston
Andrew Ng
Robin Hanson
Trump
Dwarkesh Patel
Marc Andreesen
Larry Ellison
Grimes
Patrick McKenzie
Travis Kalanick
Lionel Messi
James (manifold)
Biden
Mark Zuckerberg
JK Rowling
Meghan Markle
Gavin Newsom
Prince William
Jack Dorsey
Martin Shkreli
Tyler Cowen
Oprah Winfrey
Paul Graham
Beff Jezos
Tim Ferriss
Elon Musk
Satya Nadella
Taylor Swift
Sam Altman
Joe Rogan
Jeff Bezos
100
88
85
73
69
68
67
66
65
64
61
58
57
54
52
49
48
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
40
38
37
32
31
26
25
21
20
19
18
17
16
9
5
4
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
368
266