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Prediction markets for Turk

Will Turkey be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032?

Dec 18, 11:01 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.04%chance

4516757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

910

Turkey Tom (TomDark) stock permanent

Sep 13, 1:45 AMDec 31, 1:44 AM

90.45%chance

507767

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1378

918

Will Turkey become a member state of the EU

Feb 19, 4:45 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29%chance

206773

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1082

518

100 military deaths in a conflict between Israel and Turkey before 2030?

Mar 5, 3:30 PMJan 1, 3:29 PM

12.81%chance

64383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2609

383

Will America invade Turkey in the next 20 years

Mar 1, 12:54 AMMar 1, 12:53 AM

4%chance

54144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4902

204

Will Northern Cyprus be recognized by a country other than Turkey before October 2026?

Aug 21, 8:23 AMOct 1, 11:59 PM

15.59%chance

221605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1758

783

Will Erdogan be president of Turkey at the start of 2029?

Dec 24, 4:01 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

20%chance

71148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Will Turkey and/or Northern Cyprus occupy the Republic of Cyprus before 2030?

Jan 2, 3:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.5%chance

101083

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1803

803

Will Israel attack Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, or Pakistan in 2027?

Jan 29, 12:29 AMJan 2, 2:33 AM

14742

OptionProbability

Other

Pakistan

Turkey

Turkmenistan

Afghanistan

Azerbaijan

Armenia

88

4

3

2

2

1

1

Which revolutions will Mike Duncan cover in future seasons of the Revolutions podcast?

Jan 18, 11:27 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7640

OptionProbability

Irish Revolution

Cuban Revolution

Iranian Revolution

Spanish Civil War/Spanish Revolution

Algerian Revolution

Chinese Communist Revolution

Greek Revolution

1989 Revolutions (as a whole, similar to 1848)

Hungarian Revolution

Turkish Revolution/Young Turks

Arab Spring (as a whole, similar to 1848)

98

98

98

87

85

80

80

56

50

50

1

Will Turkey remain a member of NATO by 2030?

Feb 1, 8:29 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

83.09%chance

18513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1253

921

New F-35 sold to Turkey by EOY2028?

Mar 21, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.24%chance

3400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

985

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