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Prediction markets for Turk

Will Turkey be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032?

Dec 18, 11:01 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.04%chance

4516757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

910

Turkey Tom (TomDark) stock permanent

Sep 13, 1:45 AMDec 31, 1:44 AM

90.45%chance

507767

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1378

918

Will Turkey become a member state of the EU

Feb 19, 4:45 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.42%chance

196714

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

490

Will Turkey acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?

Feb 10, 5:00 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

31.61%chance

161652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

167

142

Will Northern Cyprus be recognized by a country other than Turkey before October 2026?

Aug 21, 8:23 AMOct 1, 11:59 PM

16.07%chance

201554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1713

791

Will Erdogan be president of Turkey at the start of 2029?

Dec 24, 4:01 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

20%chance

71148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Will Israel attack Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, or Jordan in 2026?

Jan 28, 5:14 PMJan 2, 2:33 AM

211077

OptionProbability

Iran

Other

Jordan

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Kuwait

74

8

6

5

4

3

Will Turkey and/or Northern Cyprus occupy the Republic of Cyprus before 2030?

Jan 2, 3:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.5%chance

91061

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1803

803

Which revolutions will Mike Duncan cover in future seasons of the Revolutions podcast?

Jan 18, 11:27 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7640

OptionProbability

Irish Revolution

Cuban Revolution

Iranian Revolution

Spanish Civil War/Spanish Revolution

Algerian Revolution

Chinese Communist Revolution

Greek Revolution

1989 Revolutions (as a whole, similar to 1848)

Hungarian Revolution

Turkish Revolution/Young Turks

Arab Spring (as a whole, similar to 1848)

98

98

98

87

85

80

80

56

50

50

1

Will Turkey remain a member of NATO by 2030?

Feb 1, 8:29 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

83.51%chance

17507

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1283

915

New F-35 sold to Turkey by EOY2028?

Mar 21, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.24%chance

3400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

985

Will Turkey annex any portion of Syria by EOY2030? (even by establishing an informal gvmt?)

Dec 9, 10:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.78%chance

451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

84

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