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Prediction markets for Turness

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10611038788

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.05%chance

941600472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11197

8835

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

Apr 8, 7:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.54%chance

5427446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

771

Will Aella carry a pregnancy to term before she turns 45?

Dec 17, 5:10 PMFeb 23, 7:59 AM

64%chance

8518816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1693

721

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Feb 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

54.54%chance

6311679

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

937

Will Lantern Bioworks's cavity-curing bioengineered S. mutans (Lumina) turn out to have horrible downsides by 2029?

Oct 8, 9:05 AMDec 16, 7:59 AM

7%chance

3411568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11171

7571

Turkey Tom (TomDark) stock permanent

Sep 13, 1:45 AMDec 31, 1:44 AM

90.45%chance

507767

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1378

918

Will 2026 turnout exceed 2022? (US midterms, percentage)

Jul 4, 2:35 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

81.61%chance

714548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5441

4403

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) become president of the United States before she turns 70?

Mar 27, 5:55 PMOct 14, 3:59 AM

16.66%chance

292574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1971

1967

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.67%chance

171570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6171

4649

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.75%chance

11423

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

975

Will I be active in 2030 to resolve my turn of the decade president market?

Dec 26, 2:11 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36%chance

8244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

113

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