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Prediction markets for Twitter

When will Twitter actually "collapse"?

Jul 1, 9:17 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

18325736

OptionProbability

Not before 2027

Q1 2024

2025

Q4 2023

2026

Q3 2023

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

85

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?

Oct 29, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.58%chance

21522356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4006

684

Will X (formerly Twitter) release credit cards before EoY 2025?

Jul 24, 5:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.48%chance

13716453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6008

839

Will Twitter have more users than Meta Threads in December 2025?

Jul 6, 12:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

82.79%chance

12411453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3622

1447

By 2040, will Nathan Young (twitter handle @NathanpmYoung) become Prime Minister?

Nov 20, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.98%chance

598328

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3890

1487

Will Manifold be acquired by Twitter by end of 2030?

Jan 26, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.13%chance

506672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2445

1306

Will Twitter claim to be profitable before 2027?

Jun 17, 5:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62.99%chance

696356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1304

767

Will Twitter suffer an unrecoverable system failure by the end of 2025?

Mar 25, 8:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.41%chance

343805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2315

774

Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?

Nov 25, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18%chance

331723

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

822

Will Twitter be valued at >100B?

Nov 5, 4:03 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

24.88%chance

281218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

858

Will Twitter join the S&P 500?

Dec 31, 9:20 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

39.34%chance

14515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1133

901

Mastodon will be more than 1% as big as Twitter in 2030

Apr 11, 3:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.44%chance

12280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

977

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