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Top stories

Winklevoss Twins Donate $21 Million in Bitcoin to Pro-Trump Crypto PAC

Winklevoss Twins Donate $21 Million in Bitcoin to Pro-Trump Crypto PAC

Authors

11

1 year ago

Winklevoss Twins File to Take Gemini Public Amid Losses as Bitwise Completes First In-Kind Bitcoin Spot ETF Exchange

Winklevoss Twins File to Take Gemini Public Amid Losses as Bitwise Completes First In-Kind Bitcoin Spot ETF Exchange

Authors

11

1 year ago

Tyler, the Creator Unveils Camp Flog Gnaw 2025 Lineup via Puzzle

Tyler, the Creator Unveils Camp Flog Gnaw 2025 Lineup via Puzzle

Authors

3

1 year ago

Lollapalooza Chile and Colombia’s Estéreo Picnic Reveal 2026 Lineups

Authors

4

1 year ago

Outside Lands Complaints Mount as Golden Gate Park Awaits 60,000-Person Finale

Authors

11

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Tyler

Tyler Robinson Sentence? (Ultimate Result)

Sep 16, 9:15 PMSep 16, 9:14 PM

14018762

OptionProbability

Prison for life without possibility of parole

Death penalty

Prison for life with possibility of parole

Acquitted/No Punishment

Fixed term of years with possibility of parole

Fixed term of years without possibility of parole

Other

69

15

6

5

3

2

1

Will May 2024 be remembered as the month 'AI safety movement died' as per Tyler Cowen?

May 21, 12:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1%chance

6616877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?

Oct 23, 11:37 PMOct 24, 10:59 PM

4.45%chance

398139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4633

216

Will Tyler Robinson be alive on December 31st, 2026?

Sep 12, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.58%chance

237211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3297

303

Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.5%chance

17950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

786

Tyler Cowen's claims about reading and travel continue to be accepted through mid 2028

Dec 18, 4:41 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

97.57%chance

20950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

909

49

Tyler Robinson dies by judicial execution?

Sep 20, 4:46 AMSep 20, 4:42 AM

34.67%chance

6709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1373

728

Will a YuGiOh card sell for a record breaking price by Jan 1st 2027? (Current: $311,211 for Tyler the Great Warrior)

Nov 28, 10:06 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

37.73%chance

18690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1461

516

Tyler Cowen thinks Claude 3 meets some definitions of AGI. Five years from now, will Claude be considered an early AGI?

Mar 7, 12:54 PMMar 8, 4:59 AM

10%chance

11650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

631

170

Will Tyler Cowen win a Nobel prize?

Oct 5, 6:36 PMDec 31, 7:32 PM

5.25%chance

5325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

425

24

Will Tyler Arnold (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18%chance

5191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

112

Tyler Robinson convicted of murder by July 31st 2027?

Jun 29, 1:14 PMJul 30, 11:59 PM

45.34%chance

644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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