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Top stories

Winklevoss Twins Donate $21 Million in Bitcoin to Pro-Trump Crypto PAC

Winklevoss Twins Donate $21 Million in Bitcoin to Pro-Trump Crypto PAC

Authors

11

6 months ago

Winklevoss Twins File to Take Gemini Public Amid Losses as Bitwise Completes First In-Kind Bitcoin Spot ETF Exchange

Winklevoss Twins File to Take Gemini Public Amid Losses as Bitwise Completes First In-Kind Bitcoin Spot ETF Exchange

Authors

11

6 months ago

Tyler, the Creator Unveils Camp Flog Gnaw 2025 Lineup via Puzzle

Tyler, the Creator Unveils Camp Flog Gnaw 2025 Lineup via Puzzle

Authors

3

6 months ago

Lollapalooza Chile and Colombia’s Estéreo Picnic Reveal 2026 Lineups

Authors

4

5 months ago

Outside Lands Complaints Mount as Golden Gate Park Awaits 60,000-Person Finale

Authors

11

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Tyler

Tyler Robinson Sentence? (Ultimate Result)

Sep 16, 9:15 PMSep 16, 9:14 PM

13617975

OptionProbability

Prison for life without possibility of parole

Death penalty

Prison for life with possibility of parole

Fixed term of years with possibility of parole

Acquitted/No Punishment

Fixed term of years without possibility of parole

Other

70

16

6

3

2

2

1

Will May 2024 be remembered as the month 'AI safety movement died' as per Tyler Cowen?

May 21, 12:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4%chance

6411797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4902

204

Will Tyler Robinson be alive on December 31st, 2026?

Sep 12, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.69%chance

226361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2447

409

Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?

Oct 23, 11:37 PMOct 24, 10:59 PM

16.82%chance

192038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2224

450

Tyler Robinson Sentence (first result)?

Sep 18, 11:47 PMSep 18, 11:40 PM

141241

OptionProbability

Prison for life without possibility of parole

Death penalty

Fixed term of years without possibility of parole

Prison for life with possibility of parole

Acquitted

Fixed term of years with possibility of parole

No result

Other

44

44

3

2

1

1

1

1

Will Tyler Robinson's father receive FBI reward money by Feb 31, 2026?

Sep 12, 4:44 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

4.58%chance

121032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

458

22

Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.02%chance

16900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1653

795

Tyler Robinson dies by judicial execution?

Sep 20, 4:46 AMSep 20, 4:42 AM

34.67%chance

6709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1373

728

Tyler Cowen thinks Claude 3 meets some definitions of AGI. Five years from now, will Claude be considered an early AGI?

Mar 7, 12:54 PMMar 8, 4:59 AM

9.12%chance

11640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

678

165

What will Tyler Robinson be convicted of?

Sep 16, 8:59 PMSep 16, 8:59 PM

9237

OptionProbability

Aggravated Murder

Felony Discharge of a Firearm Causing Serious Bodily Injury

Commission of a Violent Offense in the Presence of a Child

Obstruction of Justice (Only once)

Witness Tampering (Twice)

Witness Tampering (Only once)

Obstruction of Justice (Twice)

92

76

50

45

34

24

20

Will a YuGiOh card sell for a record breaking price by Jan 1st 2027? (Current: $311,211 for Tyler the Great Warrior)

Nov 28, 10:06 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

62.79%chance

16231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

985

Will Tyler Cowen get diagnosed with plasticosis by EOY2039?

Sep 21, 5:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

1200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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