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OptionProbability
Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases
Gene Editing Therapies
Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat
Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile
Regenerative Medicine
Brain-Computer Interfaces
Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat
Heat pumps and solar panels for heating homes
Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles
Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer
Male pattern baldness treatment that consistently turns Nowood 7 to Norwood 1 (no surgery/grafts)
Solar panels with 40% efficiency
Bioprinting
Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases
Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships
a molecule derived using Alphafold (current or successor models) achieves over $1B of commercial retail sales
Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)
viable cloned organs using your own DNA as base (i.e. no autoimmune organ rejection)
Human-level AGI
Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars
Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³
Seafloor Mining Robots
Space-Based Manufacturing
Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew
Non-invasive colon cancer screening that is equally or more effective than a Colonoscopy
Quantum Computing Applications
Graphene semiconductor electronics
ASI
Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure
Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery
Lunar Bases
Moon base
Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use
More than half of all commercial ships built between 2030-2050 have the option to supplement their power burn with wind power (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R6ln7pr5QU)
Major resurgence of lighter than air craft for shipping or consumer travel/leisure
Britain finishes HS2
Direct Cognitive Collaboration
Photonic computing
A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years
Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities
Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue
Commercial asteroid mining
Datacenters in space
Hypersonic commercial passenger travel
Sand Batteries (Polar Night Energy) to store energy for months.
Joywire
Commercial fusion power
Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors
Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)
Fast travel across the globe
AI that produces AAA-level video games via end-user prompts
Medication that adds 30 lbs+ muscle with no major negative health effects
Nuclear powered cargo ships
City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks
Nuclear microreactors that can be used anywhere
Mars Base
Nuclear Thermal Rockets
Point-to-Point Suborbital Spaceflight (Regularly Scheduled Passenger Transport)
Cryonics with Successful Revival
Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol
Commercial satellite to ground power transmission
Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories
Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure
Human Mind Uploading
Changing the height of an adult at will
Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)
Orbital Habitats
Fusion Drives
Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells
Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation
Space-to-Earth power stations
Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light
Human sex change at chromosome level
Changing a person's race at will
Von Neumann Probe
A skyhook space structure in LEO
Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months
Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities
Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids
Vacuum Airships
Time travel to the future
Commercial cold fusion
Space Elevator
Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms
Antimatter bombs
Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)
Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)
1% Dyson sphere coverage
Faster then Light Propulsion
Time travel to the past
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OptionProbability
Gunplay
On screen fatalities
Bond will be a man
Bond drives a car
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
London will appear on screen
World capital other than London appears on screen
Car chase scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Bond drinks a martini
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Blue-eyed Bond
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
Q appears
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Hacking electronics of some form
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Bond flys an aircraft
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
Bond parachutes
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Bond gets slapped
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Prison/jail scene
Black market trafficking
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond licks something
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Skydiving
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
Bond commits arson
Bond receives a gunshot wound
Oral sex
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Bond has facial hair
Terrorists
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
The title will refer to life and/or death
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Desert scene
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Death of a Bond love interest
James Bond plays poker
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Wilhelm scream
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
Bond will be in a submarine
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond is LQBTQ+
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
Jetpack
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Bond rides an animal
Nazis (neo- counts)
An EMP device plays a central role.
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
Orgy
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Underwater combat
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
Mexico is shown on screen
Cryptocurrency is referenced
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
Bond is blond
A hamburger appears on screen
Assplay
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Bond goes to space
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
A pinball machine will appear.
Gay sex scene
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
Pirates
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Bond plays Russian roulette
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Feature Nightcore music
Bond uses chopsticks
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Supernatural entities
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Nuclear explosion
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
Vampires
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
Bond vapes
Bond won't be Caucasian
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
It will be directed by a woman
Bond dies
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
The fourth wall is broken
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond is vegan
Released in 2026
Bond hits the griddy
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
14871
7405
OptionProbability
Attorney General: Pam Bondi
Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem
Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard
Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles
Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth
Federal Bureau of Investigation Director: Kash Patel
Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick
Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin
Secretary of State: Marco Rubio
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Secretary of Transportation: Sean Duffy
Director of Central Intelligence Agency: John Ratcliffe
Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bassent
Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Kelly Lorffler
Secretary of Agriculture: Brooke Rollins
United States Trade Representative: James Greer
Ambassador to the United Nations: Mike Waltz
Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Russ Vought
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Scott Turner
Secretary of Energy: Chris Wright
Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Doug Collins
Secretary of the Interior: Doug Burgum
Secretary of Education: Linda McMahon
President: Donald Trump
Vice President: JD Vance
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48
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10
4
OptionProbability
Aella
CJ the X
Rob Miles
Solar Sands
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Andrea Botez
Ordinarythings
Scott Alexander
Tristan Harris
Tim Urban
idubbbz
Dax Flame
Micheal Reeves
Any #Vsauce
CGP Grey
XKCD
Yung Gravy
Lex Fridman
Destiny
Mr Beast
Bbyno$
Jordan Peterson
Elon Musk
PewDiePie
Sam Altman
Joe Rogan
Donald Trump
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100
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20
10
8
8
8
8
6
6
6
6
6
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
OptionProbability
Social Media
Increased awareness/willingness to diagnose
Phones
Mass Psychogenic Illness
Some form of intentional psychological manipulation (algorithmic manipulation, intentional group polarization, psychological warfare, etc.)
There actually is no mental health crisis, it just looks like there is one due to e.g. biased reporting
The postmodern condition becoming more widespread
Hearing about bad things going on (like Climate Change)
REM defficient sleep
Psychoactive drugs (prescribed or recreational)
Socioeconomic hardships
Urbanicity
Microplastics
Nanoplastics
Some sort of ingested/inhaled contaminant
cocaine dust particles passive intake
COVID vaccine side effect
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78
67
62
59
57
57
51
48
34
30
28
21
12
8
4
2
OptionProbability
JD Vance (Vice President)
Doug Burgum (Secretary of Interior)
John Ratcliffe (CIA Director)
Jamison Greer (United States Trade Representative)
Linda McMahon (Secretary of Education)
Doug Collins (Secretary of Veterans Affairs)
Chris Wright (Secretary of Energy)
Sean Duffy (Secretary of Transportation)
Scott Turner (Secretary of Housing and Urban Development)
Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)
Lee Zeldin (Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency)
Brooke Rollins (Secretary of Agriculture)
Russell Vought (Director of the Office of Management and Budget)
Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)
Kelly Loeffler (Administrator of the Small Business Administration)
Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce)
John Ratcliffe (Director of the Central Intelligence Agency)
Scott Bessent (Secretary of Treasury)
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services)
Susie Wiles (Chief of Staff)
Pam Bondi (Attorney General)
Kristi Noem (Secretary of Homeland Security)
Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Secretary of Labor)
Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)
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1
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1291
775
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1125
943
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1340
746
OptionVotes
NO
YES
191
153
OptionProbability
Pete Hegseth - Secretary of War
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. - Secretary of Health and Human Services
Marco Rubio - Secretary of State
Kelly Loeffler - Administrator of the Small Business Administration
Scott Bessent - Secretary of the Treasury
Todd Blanche - Attorney General
Doug Burgum - Secretary of the Interior
Jay Clayton - Director of National Intelligence
Doug Collins - Secretary of Veterans Affairs
Jamieson Greer - United States Trade Representative
Brooke Rollins - Secretary of Agriculture
Keith Sonderling - Secretary of Labor
Sean Duffy - Secretary of Transportation
Howard Lutnick - Secretary of Commerce
Linda McMahon - Secretary of Education
Markwayne Mullin - Secretary of Homeland Security
John Ratcliffe - Director of the Central Intelligence Agency
Scott Turner - Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
Russ Vought - Director of the Office of Management and Budget
Chris Wright - Secretary of Energy
Lee Zeldin - Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency
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