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OptionProbability
Gene Editing Therapies
Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile
Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases
Regenerative Medicine
Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles
Brain-Computer Interfaces
Human-level AGI
Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³
Bioprinting
Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat
Solar panels with 40% efficiency
Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat
Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars
Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases
Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships
Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use
Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)
Quantum Computing Applications
Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer
Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery
Space-Based Manufacturing
Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure
A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years
Seafloor Mining Robots
Graphene semiconductor electronics
Lunar Bases
Moon base
Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)
Britain finishes HS2
Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities
Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew
Commercial asteroid mining
Commercial fusion power
Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)
Nuclear microreactors that can be used anywhere
City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks
Joywire
Point-to-Point Suborbital Spaceflight (Regularly Scheduled Passenger Transport)
Hypersonic commercial passenger travel
Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors
Nuclear Thermal Rockets
Photonic computing
Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation
Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure
Mars Base
Fusion Drives
Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol
Orbital Habitats
Direct Cognitive Collaboration
Commercial satellite to ground power transmission
Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months
A skyhook space structure in LEO
Commercial cold fusion
Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities
Human Mind Uploading
Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light
Cryonics with Successful Revival
Space-to-Earth power stations
Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue
Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories
Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells
Changing the height of an adult at will
Changing a person's race at will
Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids
Human sex change at chromosome level
Antimatter bombs
Time travel to the future
Vacuum Airships
1% Dyson sphere coverage
Space Elevator
Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms
Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)
Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)
Faster then Light Propulsion
Time travel to the past
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1
OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Car chase scene
Urban scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
World capital other than London appears on screen
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond drinks a martini
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
Q appears
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Hacking electronics of some form
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Prison/jail scene
Black market trafficking
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Bond has facial hair
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
Death of a Bond love interest
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
Bond will be in a submarine
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Nazis (neo- counts)
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Orgy
Canada is shown on screen
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A hamburger appears on screen
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Underwater combat
Bond goes to space
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Assplay
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
Bond plays Russian roulette
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
A pinball machine will appear.
Gay sex scene
Pirates
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Nuclear explosion
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
Vampires
Bond vapes
Bond won't be Caucasian
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
The fourth wall is broken
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
14362
7595
OptionProbability
Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem
Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles
Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth
Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard
Federal Bureau of Investigation Director: Kash Patel
Attorney General: Pam Bondi
Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick
Secretary of Education: Linda McMahon
Secretary of Transportation: Sean Duffy
Director of Central Intelligence Agency: John Ratcliffe
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin
Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Kelly Lorffler
Secretary of State: Marco Rubio
Secretary of Agriculture: Brooke Rollins
Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Russ Vought
United States Trade Representative: James Greer
Ambassador to the United Nations: Mike Waltz
Secretary of the Interior: Doug Burgum
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Scott Turner
Secretary of Energy: Chris Wright
Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Doug Collins
Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bassent
President: Donald Trump
Vice President: JD Vance
100
85
74
70
66
59
58
48
44
35
34
33
31
29
27
27
27
27
27
22
22
22
22
21
11
7
OptionProbability
Social Media
Increased awareness/willingness to diagnose
Phones
Mass Psychogenic Illness
Some form of intentional psychological manipulation (algorithmic manipulation, intentional group polarization, psychological warfare, etc.)
There actually is no mental health crisis, it just looks like there is one due to e.g. biased reporting
The postmodern condition becoming more widespread
Hearing about bad things going on (like Climate Change)
REM defficient sleep
Psychoactive drugs (prescribed or recreational)
Socioeconomic hardships
Urbanicity
Microplastics
Nanoplastics
Some sort of ingested/inhaled contaminant
cocaine dust particles passive intake
COVID vaccine side effect
80
76
67
62
59
57
57
51
48
34
30
28
21
12
8
4
2
OptionProbability
311 omakase
Ostra
O Ya
Deuxave
Nightshade Noodle Bar
Wa Shin
Astra
Celeste
Giulia
Kaia
Mahaniyom
Brassica Kitchen + Cafe
Oleana
Urban Hearth
Sarma
99
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
JD Vance (Vice President)
Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)
Lee Zeldin (Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency)
Doug Burgum (Secretary of Interior)
Linda McMahon (Secretary of Education)
Jamison Greer (United States Trade Representative)
Scott Bessent (Secretary of Treasury)
Doug Collins (Secretary of Veterans Affairs)
Sean Duffy (Secretary of Transportation)
Chris Wright (Secretary of Energy)
Brooke Rollins (Secretary of Agriculture)
Scott Turner (Secretary of Housing and Urban Development)
John Ratcliffe (CIA Director)
Kelly Loeffler (Administrator of the Small Business Administration)
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services)
Russell Vought (Director of the Office of Management and Budget)
Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce)
Pam Bondi (Attorney General)
John Ratcliffe (Director of the Central Intelligence Agency)
Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)
Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)
Susie Wiles (Chief of Staff)
Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Secretary of Labor)
Kristi Noem (Secretary of Homeland Security)
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90
89
88
85
85
83
78
78
78
78
78
76
66
62
58
50
46
27
25
18
0
OptionProbability
Anna Riedl
Other
Gwern
Oliver Habryka
Nate Soares
Alysa Liu
Nuño Sempere
Aella
Joscha Bach
Tetra
Zvi Mowshowitz
Tim Urban
Duncan Sabien
David Gerard
Eliezer Yudkowksy
Scott Alexander
18
15
10
9
8
8
7
6
5
4
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1125
943
OptionVotes
NO
YES
191
153
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1010
990
