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Prediction markets for Vaca

Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?

Oct 9, 3:38 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7411329

OptionProbability

Samuel Alito

Clarence Thomas

Sonia Sotomayor

Chief John Roberts

Elena Kagan

Neil Gorsuch

Brett Cavanaugh

Amy Coney Barrett

Ketanji Brown Jackson

Other

57

27

4

2

2

2

2

1

1

0

If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat?

Jul 3, 8:28 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

42.02%chance

317442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

851

What will cause the next Supreme Court vacancy?

Mar 2, 2:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

234692

OptionProbability

Resignation

Death

84

16

No Supreme Court vacancy opens in 2026?

Jan 6, 12:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.21%chance

211290

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

96

Will US citizens have the opportunity to vacation in North Korea on January 1st 2040?

Feb 18, 10:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.54%chance

261108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

931

Who will be the next member of the Supreme Court to vacate the bench?

Dec 1, 9:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24941

OptionProbability

Samuel Alito

Clarence Thomas

Sonya Sotomayor

John Roberts

Neil Gorsuch

Amy Coney-Barrett

Elena Kagan

Brett Kavanaugh

Ketanji Brown-Jackson

67

21

4

2

2

1

1

1

1

Will Mitch McConnell's Senate seat be vacant Christmas Eve 2026?

Jul 3, 7:16 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

3.82%chance

12487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

502

20

If Zohran Mamdani is elected mayor of New York in 2025, what will the rental vacancy rate be in 2029?

May 25, 7:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2285

OptionProbability

1 - 1.9%

2 - 2.9%

Below 1%

3 - 3.9%

4 - 5%

Above 5%

27

27

19

18

5

4

Will UK job vacancies increase?

Sep 15, 9:24 PMJan 31, 10:22 PM

364

OptionProbability

November 2026

December 2026

January 2027

October 2026

43

43

43

11

If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat?

Aug 12, 4:29 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

42.13%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

78

Detroit LVT: Will the project discourage repurposing vacant land to green space? (2028)

Oct 13, 4:10 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

48.17%chance

540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

132

127

How many U.S. teaching positions will LPI estimate were vacant or filled by teachers without full certification in 2027?

Aug 8, 5:31 AMAug 2, 5:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Under 400,000

400,000–424,999

425,000–449,999

450,000–474,999

475,000 or more

20

20

20

20

20

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