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Prediction markets for Vaca

Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?

Oct 9, 3:38 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7111184

OptionProbability

Samuel Alito

Clarence Thomas

Sonia Sotomayor

Chief John Roberts

Elena Kagan

Neil Gorsuch

Brett Cavanaugh

Amy Coney Barrett

Ketanji Brown Jackson

Other

61

29

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat?

Jul 3, 8:28 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

42.02%chance

317442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

851

What will cause the next Supreme Court vacancy?

Mar 2, 2:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

234692

OptionProbability

Resignation

Death

84

16

No Supreme Court vacancy opens in 2026?

Jan 6, 12:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

89.98%chance

181232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

191

85

Will US citizens have the opportunity to vacation in North Korea on January 1st 2040?

Feb 18, 10:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.54%chance

261108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

931

Who will be the next member of the Supreme Court to vacate the bench?

Dec 1, 9:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24941

OptionProbability

Samuel Alito

Clarence Thomas

Sonya Sotomayor

John Roberts

Neil Gorsuch

Amy Coney-Barrett

Elena Kagan

Brett Kavanaugh

Ketanji Brown-Jackson

67

21

4

2

2

1

1

1

1

If Zohran Mamdani is elected mayor of New York in 2025, what will the rental vacancy rate be in 2029?

May 25, 7:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2285

OptionProbability

1 - 1.9%

2 - 2.9%

Below 1%

3 - 3.9%

4 - 5%

Above 5%

27

27

19

18

5

4

Will Mitch McConnell's Senate seat be vacant Christmas Eve 2026?

Jul 3, 7:16 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

19.84%chance

10186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

50

If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat?

Aug 12, 4:29 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

42.13%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

78

Detroit LVT: Will the project discourage repurposing vacant land to green space? (2028)

Oct 13, 4:10 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

48.17%chance

540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

132

127

Will UK job vacancies increase?

Sep 15, 9:24 PMJan 31, 10:22 PM

119

OptionProbability

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026

January 2027

48

43

43

43

How many U.S. teaching positions will LPI estimate were vacant or filled by teachers without full certification in 2027?

Aug 8, 5:31 AMAug 2, 5:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Under 400,000

400,000–424,999

425,000–449,999

450,000–474,999

475,000 or more

20

20

20

20

20

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