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Prediction markets for Vaca

Will Sherrod Brown run for JD Vance's vacated senate seat?

Nov 8, 9:57 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

91.79%chance

1612322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3343

299

Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?

Oct 9, 3:38 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6910612

OptionProbability

Samuel Alito

Clarence Thomas

Sonia Sotomayor

Neil Gorsuch

Brett Cavanaugh

Chief John Roberts

Elena Kagan

Amy Coney Barrett

Ketanji Brown Jackson

Other

64

24

4

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

Will Rep. Thomas Massie run for and win Mitch McConnell's vacant senate seat in the 2026 Midterms?

Mar 2, 2:46 AMNov 5, 7:59 AM

3.77%chance

105297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5053

198

Will US citizens have the opportunity to vacation in North Korea on January 1st 2040?

Feb 18, 10:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.54%chance

261108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

931

Who will be the next member of the Supreme Court to vacate the bench?

Dec 1, 9:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24931

OptionProbability

Samuel Alito

Clarence Thomas

Sonya Sotomayor

John Roberts

Neil Gorsuch

Amy Coney-Barrett

Elena Kagan

Brett Kavanaugh

Ketanji Brown-Jackson

65

22

5

2

2

1

1

1

1

Will UK job vacancies increase?

Feb 23, 8:37 AMJul 9, 7:35 AM

5584

OptionProbability

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

March 2026

52

50

50

46

0

If Zohran Mamdani is elected mayor of New York in 2025, what will the rental vacancy rate be in 2029?

May 25, 7:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2285

OptionProbability

1 - 1.9%

2 - 2.9%

Below 1%

3 - 3.9%

4 - 5%

Above 5%

27

27

19

18

5

4

Will Union Square in San Francisco have a retail direct vacancy rate lower than 13% in Q1 2026?

Feb 13, 6:49 PMMay 1, 6:59 AM

16.49%chance

3145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

225

44

No Supreme Court vacancy opens in 2026?

Jan 6, 12:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.57%chance

6109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

95

Will San Francisco have a retail vacancy rate lower than 4.5% in Q1 2026?

Feb 13, 6:38 PMMay 1, 6:59 AM

19.22%chance

4105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

205

49

Detroit LVT: Will 90% of vacant land be abandoned rather than sold? (2028)

Oct 13, 3:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

33.84%chance

759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

89

Detroit LVT: Will the project discourage repurposing vacant land to green space? (2028)

Oct 13, 4:10 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52.05%chance

430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

117

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