Valérie Plante News

US bombs Iran’s nuclear facility

Iran bomb a gulf country (inclusive of offshore platforms)

UN Security Council proposes a cease-fire resolution

Iran fires missiles that land within 50km of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem

Iranian General killed inside Iran

Donald Trump declares victory

Iranian government official declares victory

China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal

US ally publicy condemns actions of US in regard to conflict

G7 member publicly condemns actions of US in regard to conflict

Trump's June 23 Cease-fire announcement is honored for at least 7 days

Iran imposes a nationwide internet shutdown lasting ≥ 24 hours

War ends in 2025

500+ Iranian civilians killed

US aid to Israel exceeds $17.9 billion for calendar year

Fordow facility successfully bombed

Coverage of ICE protests never recovers following the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites

Iran is back to negotiations with US about a nuclear deal

Israel confirmed to have deployed troops on Iranian soil

Natanz Nuclear Facility destroyed

Israel publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body

The International Criminal Court opens a formal war-crimes investigation tied to the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict

War Ends in June

Iranian national arrested for espionage in USA

Iran launches a cruise missile

Israel government dissolves

At least one UNESCO World Heritage site in Israel or Iran is officially reported damaged by hostilities

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced for any reason

North Korea provides material support to Iran (weapons, money, etc.)

Iran cause a mass casualty event (20+ deaths) by a single missle in Israel

Iranian government official killed via small arms fire/special operations (not air/drone strike)

Iran publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body

A terrorist event planned by Iran in a 3rd country targeting Israelis or Jews is successfully executed (5+ deaths)

Multiple Iranian government members chant "death to [non-NATO country]"

Iranian national arrested for planning/executing terrorism in USA

Cease-fire resolution passed by UN Security Council

Cease-fire broken by any party, causing conflict to resume

A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 25%

Iran seizes a G7-flagged ship in Hormuz

A warship exceeding 1000 tons is sank

USA vetoes a proposed UN cease-fire resolution

Straight of Hormuz is closed for less than 72 hours

Iran officially exits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

There is a major Iranian cyberattack against the United States.

Russia delivers S-400 (or better) air defense system to Iran

Major media source (BBC, NYT, Fox, CNN, etc.) refers to American involvement as "Iraq 2.0" or similar

WTI Crude futures reach 90usd/bll (NYME:CL.1)

>=1 USA servicemember killed in connection with this conflict

>=1 USA civilian killed in connection with this conflict

A second cease-fire is announced

Wikipedia lists Syria as a beligerent for more than 24 hours

USA conducts a second bombing in Iran

A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed

Hezbollah initiates attacks on Israel (2 or more days of strikes, publicly announced by Hezbollah)

Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister)

Several terrorist attacks on U.S. soil causes casualties ( at least 2 attacks and 1 death)

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations over the Israel-Iran conflict

Civilian manned aircraft destroyed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, or Israel airspace

Iranian government dissolves

Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz

Israel uses an EMP or directed energy weapon

Holy sites of Israel are destroyed after the war.

A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 10%

Tel-aviv stock exchange closes for a full trading day

Iran regime change

Israel targets Iranian *production* or *export* oriented energy facility (refineries and storage for internal use don’t count)

Iran successfully bomb an Israeli civilian power plant or offshore platform

Russia stations combat jets on Iran soil

UN Security Council passes new Iran arms embargo with no vetoes

Saudi Arabia attacks Iran

Any amount of Israeli Merkava tanks are destroyed

Ayatollah Khamenei dies unnaturally

Iran tests a nuclear weapon

Brent crude closes ≥ $130 per barrel before 1 Jan 2026

There is a major foreign or terrorist attack on U.S. soil that kills 100+ people.

Total casualties exceed 10,000

Trump is frustrated that even by bombing another country he still can’t get any woman to find him attractive

War ends in July

Transitional Iranian government headed by Reza Pahlavi

State with >250k active military personnel joins war on side of Iran

Qatar attacks Iran

≥ 100 000 people flee Iran into Turkey or Iraq as registered refugees because of the conflict

US invasion (boots on the ground, special forces not included)

Will resolve to the number of days until a ceasefire (max 100). Ceasefire: one airspace is opened (at the very least). Stars June 21 2025

A nuclear weapon is used offensively.

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

The company will be valued at >= $1 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

The company will be valued at >= $10 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

At least one of the founders (Ilya Sutskever, Daniel Gross, Daniel Levy) will leave the company

Zvi will mention the company in a blog post

Zvi will mention the company in a blog post in 2025

The company will be valued at >= $100 Million according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

The company will raise more than $1 billion of capital

Ilya will remain at the company continuously until EOY 2025, or until the company is acquired/ceases to exist

The official SSI X account will have more than 100k followers

The majority of their compute will come from Nvidia GPUs

I will believe the company should have invested more in AI Safety relative to Capabilities at EOY 2025

The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves self-play/synthetic data

Ilya will discuss the company on a podcast

The company will publish an assessment of the model’s dangerous capabilities (e.g. https://www.anthropic.com/news/frontier-threats-red-teaming-for-ai-safety)

Ilya will give a presentation on research done at the company

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^24 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

A majority of people believe that the company has been net-positive for the world according to a poll released at EOY 2025

The company will include at least one image on its website

The company will announce that their model scores >= 85 MMLU

The company will announce that their model scores >= 50 GPQA

The company will invite independent researchers/orgs to do evals on their models

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^25 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will have at least 100 employees

The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves creating an automated AI researcher

The company will publish a Responsible Scaling Policy or similar document (e.g. OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework)

The company will announce research or models related to automated theorem proving (e.g. https://openai.com/index/generative-language-modeling-for-automated-theorem-proving/)

The company will be on track to build ASI by 2030, according to a Manifold poll conducted at EOY 2025

I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has significantly advanced AI capabilities

The company will release a publicly available API for an AI model

The company will publish research related specifically to Sparse Autoencoders

The official SSI X account will have more than 200k followers

I will meet an employee of the company in person (currently true for OAI, Anthropic, xAI but not Deepmind)

The company will sell any products or services before EOY 2025

The company will release a new AI or AI safety benchmark (e.g. MMLU, GPQA)

The company will announce that they are on track to develop superintelligence by EOY 2030 or earlier

The company will publish research which involves collaboration with at least 5 members of another leading AI lab (e.g. OAI, GDM, Anthropic, xAI)

The company will have a group of more than 10 people working on Mechanistic Interpretability

The company will release a chatbot or any other AI system which accepts text input

The company will release a model scoring >= 1300 elo in the chatbot arena leaderboard

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^26 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will open offices outside of the US and Israel

I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has made significant progress in AI Alignment

I’ll work there (@mr_mino)

The company will announce a commitment to spend at least 20% of their compute on AI Safety/Alignment

The company will be listed as a “Frontier Lab” on https://ailabwatch.org/companies/

The company will be involved in a lawsuit

It will be reported that Nvidia is an investor in the company

The company’s model weights will be leaked/stolen

I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has built an fully automated AI researcher

The company will make a GAN

The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves continuous chain of thought

It’s reported that the company’s model scores >= 90 on the ARC-AGI challenge (public or private version)

The company will open source its model weights or training algorithms

It will be reported that a model produced by the company will self-exfiltrate, or attempt to do so

The official SSI X account will have more than 1M followers

The company will be valued at >= $100 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

The phrase “Feel the AGI” or “Feel the ASI” will be published somewhere on the company website

The company will be reported to purchase at least $1 Billion in AI hardware, including cloud resources

Leopold Aschenbrenner will join the company

The company will advocate for a AI scaling pause or will endorse such a proposal (e.g. https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/)

The company will have a public contract with the US government to develop some technology

The company will publish research related to Singular Learning Theory

Major algorithmic secrets (e.g architecture, training methods) will be leaked/stolen

The company will publish research related to Neural Turing Machines

The company’s AI will be involved in an accident which causes at least $10 million in damages

The company will release a model scoring in the top 3 of the chatbot arena leaderboard

The company will publish a research paper written entirely by their AI system

The company release a video generation demo made by their AI system

I will believe at EOY 2025 the company has made significant advances in robotics or manufacturing

Their model will be able to play Chess, Shogi, or Go at least as well as the best human players

There will be a public protest or boycott directed against the company with more than 100 members

The company will be closer to building ASI than any other AI Lab at EOY 2025, as judged by a manifold poll

The company’s model will independently solve an open mathematical conjecture created before 2024

The company will publish a peer-reviewed paper with more than 1000 citations

The company will be acquired by another company

Elon musk will be an investor of the company

The company will release a model that reaches the #1 rank in the Chatbot Arena (including sharing the #1 rank with other models when their confidence intervals overlap)

The company will release an app available on iPhone or android

The company will change its name

The company will be merged with or acquired by another company

The company will announce that they have created Superintelligence

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^28 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

It will be reported that Sam Altman is an investor in the company

The company will build their own AI chips

Their model will be the first to get a gold medal or equivalent in IMO (International Mathematics Olympiad)

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^29 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >= 1 GW

The company will publish at least 5 papers in peer reviewed journals

The company will declare bankruptcy

The company will be reported to acquire an Aluminum manufacturing plant for its long term power contract

The company will be publicly traded

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^27 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^30 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

I'll work there (@AndrewG)

The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >=10 GW

The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >=100 GW

The company will be valued at >= $1 Trillion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

Kirby

Pit

Captain Falcon

Donkey Kong

Lucina

Toon Link

Luigi

Jigglypuff

Mario

Link

Samus

Pikachu

Ness

Peach

Bowser

Ice Climbers

Sheik

Zelda

Dr. Mario

Pichu

Falco

Marth

Ganondorf

Roy

Meta Knight

Zero Suit Samus

Wario

Sonic

King Dedede

R.O.B

Wolf

Villager

Shulk

Bowser Jr.

Duck Hunt

Ryu

Cloud

Simon Belmont

King K. Rool

Steve

Other

Yoshi

Fox

Young Link

Mewtwo

Mr. Game & Watch

Snake

Ike

PKMN Trainer

Diddy Kong

Lucas

Olimar

Lucario

Mega Man

Wii Fit Trainer

Rosalina & Luma

Little Mac

Greninja

Mii Fighter

Palutena

Pac-Man

Robin

Corrin

Bayonetta

Inkling

Ridley

Richter

Isabelle

Incineroar

Piranha Plant

Joker

Hero

Banjo-Kazooie

Terry Bogard

Number of president executive orders in 2025

Number of USA presidential pardons in 2025

Doomsday Clock seconds to midnight

Largest earthquake in 2025 (eg 7.5 would be 75%)

Bitcoin value (eg 50K would be 50%)

How many total videos on Joseph Anderson's Youtube Channel

Age of Nobel Peace Prize winner in 2025

How many countries recognize the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic

How many nuclear power plants operating in the USA

Number of Republican Senators

Highest Number of Home Runs hit by a single player in 2025 MLB season

Last 2 digits of Minecraft Bedrock's most recent patch (eg 1.50.30 would be 30%)

Latest ChatGPT version number released (eg 6.5 would be 65%)

How many new shows on Broadway in 2025

How many points the winning Superbowl team has

Jersey number of the Cy Young award winner

How many US states have legalized recreational marijuana

How many points the losing Superbowl team has

Manifold's average MAU (eg 25k would be 25%)

How many SpaceX Launches in Dec of 2025

Jersey number of the Heisman trophy winner

Number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic hurricane season

Number of anime profile pics in Manifold's top 100 traders

Number of trillion dollar companies

Luigi Mangione makes or releases statement to the public

Government seeks the death penalty

A public figure calls for the death penalty

Pro-Mangione fan club assembles outside courthouse or at trial

Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence

Defense files motion to suppress evidence

Gag order imposed on case participants

Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case

Nancy Grace call for Mangione’s conviction

Prosecution seeks additional charges other than those in the orginal indictment

Mangione's legal team files for dismissal of charges with prejudice

Prosecution alleges additional victims or attempted crimes

Defense claims insufficient evidence for probable cause

Prosecution seeks to introduce evidence of prior bad acts

Defense claims violation of Miranda rights

Competency evaluation is sought by the defense

Expert witnesses publicly dispute evidence validity

Suspect makes a confession there is made public in court documents

We learn that, at some point in time, Mangione received inpatient psych treatment

Defense requests change in venue

Mangione assaulted while in custody

Court grants competency evaluation

Anyone else charged in connection with Brian Thompson’s murder

Any member of Congress expresses specific support for Luigi Mangione (e.g. calling him a hero, saying he should not be convicted, etc)

Mangione reported to be in a new relationship

Defense granted a change in venue outside of Manhattan

Mangione attempts suicide

Prosecution offers plea deal that becomes public

Case does not go to trial as a result of a plea

Bail hearing results in release with monitoring

NO

Valérie Plante

Avi Lewis

Leah Gazan

Heather McPherson

Nathan Cullen

Yves Engler

Other

Jenny Kwan

Don Davies

Matthew Green

Alexandre Boulerice

Charlie Angus

Wab Kinew

Ruth Ellen Brosseau

Rachel Notley

Niki Ashton

Peter Julian

Robots

Some As of Early 2024 Not Even Published Yet Architecture as Revolutionary as Transformers was in 2017

Synthetic Biology / Genetic Engineering: For example, developing new vaccines, engineering proteins for sustainable fabric production, developing cell-cultured meats, plant-based meat alternatives, and engineering human immune cells.

Will I be part of a team that completes the Mongol Rally in 2025?

If we complete, we will we raise more than 3000 USD for effective charities?

Will 3 or more manifold users complete the Mongol Rally in 2025?

Car breaks down

If I complete the Mongol Rally, will my team have more than 5 members?

Will an EA lightbulb be planted at the finish line of the Mongol Rally?

No plants will be known to be growing

Other

A novel species engineered for the purpose

Algae (non seaweed)

le moon grass

Strawberries

Potatoes

Seaweed

Duckweed

Flowers (of any kind)

Corn

Grass

Blueberries

Mosquito

Other

Fruit fly

Screwworm

Fish

Human

Plant