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Prediction markets for Ver

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53%chance

995746565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10534

9400

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

173115590

OptionProbability

1,750 - 1,899

1,600 - 1,749

1,900 - 2,049

1,150 - 1,299

1,450 - 1,599

1,300 - 1,449

1,000 - 1,149

2,050 - 2,199

1 - 999

2,200 - 2,349

2,350 - 2,499

2,500 or greater

35

24

10

7

7

5

4

4

2

2

0

0

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77.39%chance

10719583

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1901

746

[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.01%chance

3010700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6298

4914

Millennium: Prize Problem solution published before 2028 and verified?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

97.52%chance

267739

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5120

87

Will the next version of Microsoft Windows operating system (Windows 12) be released before Grand Theft Auto 6?

Dec 29, 4:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.52%chance

503260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1858

297

Will anyone currently living be verified as 120 years old by 2030?

Feb 12, 2:13 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

20.27%chance

162821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5020

2151

Will Roger Ver go to prison again before the end of 2026?

Dec 4, 6:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.38%chance

22550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3542

282

In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?

Jan 2, 9:38 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

70.46%chance

131749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

1194

Will Planet 9's existence be verified by 2040?

Oct 3, 2:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.95%chance

17459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

890

Will Roger Ver admit he is a BTC bitcoiner before 2030?

Jan 8, 4:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.73%chance

5199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

84

Will the next version of the C programming language (C2y) include a "defer" feature?

Apr 22, 6:20 PMOct 21, 10:59 PM

55.76%chance

5127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

901

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