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Prediction markets for Ver

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.68%chance

985744202

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10678

9273

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

171114660

OptionProbability

1,750 - 1,899

1,600 - 1,749

1,900 - 2,049

1,150 - 1,299

1,450 - 1,599

1,300 - 1,449

1,000 - 1,149

2,050 - 2,199

1 - 999

2,200 - 2,349

2,350 - 2,499

2,500 or greater

35

27

10

7

6

5

4

4

1

1

0

0

Will Discord Cancel Age Verification Rollout

Feb 10, 3:05 PMDec 31, 3:00 PM

15%chance

19133560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2373

432

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77.32%chance

10519439

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1897

748

[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.46%chance

268506

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5370

3379

Will the next version of Microsoft Windows operating system (Windows 12) be released before Grand Theft Auto 6?

Dec 29, 4:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.81%chance

493250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1848

300

Will anyone currently living be verified as 120 years old by 2030?

Feb 12, 2:13 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

20.79%chance

152721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4920

2177

Will Roger Ver go to prison again before the end of 2026?

Dec 4, 6:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.38%chance

22550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3542

282

In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?

Jan 2, 9:38 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

70.46%chance

131749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

1194

Will Planet 9's existence be verified by 2040?

Oct 3, 2:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.95%chance

17459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

890

Will Roger Ver admit he is a BTC bitcoiner before 2030?

Jan 8, 4:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.73%chance

5199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

84

Will the next version of the C programming language (C2y) include a "defer" feature?

Apr 22, 6:20 PMOct 21, 10:59 PM

55.76%chance

5127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

901

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