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Prediction markets for Ver

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.58%chance

961735010

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10028

9859

How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

May 27, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

15196616

OptionProbability

1,750 - 1,899

1,600 - 1,749

1,450 - 1,599

1,900 - 2,049

1,300 - 1,449

2,050 - 2,199

2,200 - 2,349

1 - 999

1,000 - 1,149

1,150 - 1,299

2,350 - 2,499

2,500 or greater

56

15

9

7

4

3

3

1

1

1

0

0

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?

Dec 5, 1:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5980193

OptionProbability

75% - 85%

85% - 90%

90% - 100%

70% - 75%

53% - 60%

60% - 70%

84

9

5

1

0

0

Top SWE-Bench Verified score in 2025?

Feb 28, 6:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4153869

OptionProbability

70 - 84%

85% - 95%

Above 95%

Below 70%

87

11

2

1

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

75%chance

10218869

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1763

790

Who will Trump pardon in 2025? [Polymarket]

Jul 27, 4:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

466990

OptionProbability

Changpeng Zhao

Rudy Giuliani

George Santos

Roger Ver

Steve Bannon

Derek Chauvin

Eric Adams

Matt Gaetz

Sam Bankman-Fried

Diddy

Bob Menendez

Julian Assange

Joe Exotic

Young Thug

Roger Stone

Edward Snowden

Ghislaine Maxwell

Elizabeth Holmes

Himself

Antoine Massey

Do Kwon

Elon Musk

Daniel Penny

Hunter Biden

99

99

99

7

7

7

6

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

3

3

1

1

Will Harvard be found liable for damages to Gino, conditional on a trial verdict being reached by 2026?

Aug 22, 11:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.69%chance

162764

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1791

1162

Will Roger Ver go to prison again before the end of 2026?

Dec 4, 6:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.58%chance

12500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3492

286

Will anyone currently living be verified as 120 years old by 2030?

Feb 12, 2:13 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

23.74%chance

142221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4420

2320

In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?

Jan 2, 9:38 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

64.77%chance

131549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1291

994

[M2500 Bounty] Will someone create a new version of the limit order indicators by march 2026?

Dec 9, 11:53 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

33.32%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1415

707

Will Roger Ver admit he is a BTC bitcoiner before 2030?

Jan 8, 4:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.73%chance

5199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

84

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