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Prediction markets for Vitalik

Who will be the richest person at the end of 2030?

Jan 2, 11:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38379685

OptionProbability

Elon Musk

Other

Jensen Huang

Larry Page

Sam Altman

Jeff Bezos

Larry Ellison

Mark Zuckerberg

Bernard Arnault

Masayoshi Son

An AGI

Satoshi Nakamoto

Sergey Brin

Donald Trump

Michael Saylor

Bill Gates

Warren Buffett

me

Steve Ballmer

Gautam Adani

Mukesh Ambani

Brian Armstrong

Changpeng “CZ” Zhao

Tim Draper

Jack Dorsey

Winklevoss Tyler/Cameron

@Mira

Vladimir Putin

Michael Dell

Amancio Ortega

Carlos Slim Helu

Vitalik Buterin

Eric Schmidt

Dave Tepper

Ken Griffin

Eduardo Saverin

Morris Chang

39

26

8

6

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Vitalik Buterin (co-founder and inventor of Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 29, 3:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.61%chance

307573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

947

Will Vitalik Buterin have a girlfriend/wife (at least once) before 2026?

Jan 5, 4:49 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

26.02%chance

172172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1656

616

Will Vitalik Buterin have a boyfriend/husband (at least once) before 2026?

Jan 5, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.75%chance

201981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1917

780

Will Vitalik Buterin create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.26%chance

271090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1267

732

Will Vitalik Buterin be found guilty of fraud before 2028?

Nov 18, 10:55 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

3.83%chance

18958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

961

Will Vitalik Buterin have a Horvath DNAm age lower than his biological age?

Jan 3, 8:12 AMJan 1, 4:01 PM

71.13%chance

15721

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

958

Will Vitalik Buterin or the Ethereum Foundation be charged by the SEC with selling unregistered securities by the end of 2030?

Dec 30, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.49%chance

15541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

956

Will "From Vitalik: Galaxy brain resistance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 12, 12:57 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.13%chance

3271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

964

Is vitalik buterin more deuterated than the average human

Jan 24, 3:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.16%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

74

34

Will "Vitalik's Response to AI 2027" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 13, 5:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will Vitalik Buterin have an OMICm age more than 6 years younger than his chrnological age?

Nov 10, 9:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

NO

YES

63

40

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