Vo News

NO

YES

Polymarket

Kalshi

IB / ForecastEx

Other

DraftKings or FanDuel

Betfair

Manifold

Valuation futures / Pre-IPO

Equity or index perps

Compute (eg H100 perps)

Non-AI prediction markets

The Democratic Party

Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)

Other

Humanity's Last Exam (HLE)

ARC-AGI

FrontierMath

YES

YES

YES

At least 50%

At least 52%

At least 54%

At least 56%

At least 58%

At least 60%

At least 62%

<3%

3% - 4%

4% - 5%

5% - 6%

6% - 7%

7% - 8%

<5%

5% - 6%

6% - 7%

7% - 8%

8% - 9%

9% - 10%