Volodímir Zelenski News

Will Zelensky be in power 2025 Jan 1st?

Will Putin be in power 2025 Jan 1st?

Will Trump be in power 2026 Jan 1st?

Will Putin be in power 2028 Jan 1st?

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2026 (lasts for at least 1 year)

Will Zelensky be in power 2028 Jan 1st?

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2025 (lasts for at least 1 year)

>5 regular NATO member state troops participate in active combat in Ukraine by EOY 2026

Will a successful coup happen in Ukraine before the peace is established?

Nuclear weapon launch aimed in such a way that it causes fewer than 10 civilian deaths (eg stratosphere, battlefield, over ocean) before 2030 by Russia

Will a successful coup happen in Russia before the peace is established?

Russian nuke which causes more than 10 civilian deaths, by 2030

Will Russia or Ukraine gain control over a new city of 250k population by EOY 2024

Will there be a generally acknlowledged agreement to end fighting by EOY 2024 (lasts for at least 1 year)

Trump will be the POTUS

FED rates will be below 5% on 1st January 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be between 300M to 350M on 1st Jan 2025

At Least 1 earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or higher

1 or more Jan 6 rioters get pardoned

Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities

Elon removed as doge head

Pope dies

Yoon Suk Yeol impeachment upheld by supreme court

Its revealed that Elon Musk had more children then 13 already known

Famous global brand goes through a rebranding

Hollow Knight Silk song released

GPT 5 releases

Russia retains de facto control over Crimea

Avatar: Fire and Ash released

This whole market gets more than 300 traders

King Charles will be alive for the whole year of 2025

2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US

LEMMiNO releases a new video

Any incumbent world leader diagnosed with cancer after 28th January 2025

FED rates will be below 4% on 31st December 2025

Yoon Suk Yeol convicted of insurrection

EF3+ Tornado Impacts Florida

In one of the monthly polls, >= 80.0% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that weak AGI has been achieved

Biden gets hospitalised

Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI >= 97%

MKBHD marries his girlfriend Nikki Hair

Early general elections in Pakistan

At least one world leader (prime minister, president, or monarch) gets assassinated while in office

Department of Education ended by executive order (even if temporarily)

T1 three-peat as League of Legends world champions

Attempt to assassinate trump in 2025

Ali Khamenei assassisnated

Mike Johnson is not Speaker

Bitcoin reaches 150k sometimes during 2025

Ali Khamenei dies a natural death

In one of the monthly polls, >= 33.3% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that non-human intelligence has influenced Earth

Russia-Ukraine war will end in 2025

There will be less MAU at manifold in December 2025 then there would be in January 2025

Attempted assassination on Zelensky in which he gets hurt but survives

Marco Rubio fired or "resigns" upon rumors of his impending termination

Dodgers win World Series

Los Ratones win against T1, or lose 2-3 (either case should resolve YES, if they don't play against each other this should be NO)

In one of the monthly polls, a plurality of Manifold users declares the achievement of weak superintelligence

Elections in Bangladesh come to pass (currently planned for late 2025 to early 2026)

Californian independence gains enough signatures

At least one Premier of a Canadian province proposes joining the USA

Phillies win the World Series

Biden dies

Harry and Meghan divorce

Saudi Arabia - Israel normalize relations

2025 hotter then 2024

A country leaves NATO

Putin dies

Congress repeals any tariff

Chuck Schumer resigns

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80%

Ukraine internal coup attempt

Elon Musk diagnosed with COVID-19

Bethesda releases a new game in the Elder Scroll series

Taylor Swift will be "single" anytime during 2025

United States government acknowledges the existence of life anywhere other than on or close to Earth

China annexes Taiwan

Filibuster abolished

Zelensky Assassinated

Article 5 of NATO invoked

After the release of GPT-5, every monthly Manifold poll results in a plurality of respondents agreeing that weak AGI has been achieved

Apple will release first foldable smartphone during 2025

OpenAI o6 or any o6 variant released

FrontierMath solved (>= 80%) and model is available to any person in the United States willing to pay for it

Kate and William divorce

Sam Altman gets fired again

At least one Premier of a Canadian province takes a concrete step, such as holding a referendum, to join the USA

Any newspaper reports a US Default on any debt

Putin assassinated

NATO at war with Russia

Trump assassinated

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 90%

US-China war

A nuclear bomb explodes

2025 is the 15th "Year of Three Popes"

US debt ceiling will be scrapped during 2025

United States government acknowledges the existence of non-human intelligence on or close to Earth

One of the Millenium prize problems falls to a model

A country leaves the EU

The winds of winter by GRR Martin will release

USA claims intelligences of extra-terrestrial origin have credibly visited or sent technology to a location within our solar system in an official government statement

Los Ratones go to LoL Worlds

LK99 replicates at last

Greenland Joins USA

End of the world by celery

Ukraine joins NATO

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before June 30

A US state secedes from the union

51st US State

Peter Turkson elected Pope

GTA 6 releases

Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero

Harris will be the POTUS

Bitcoin will be > 100k on 1st January 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be below 300M on 1st Jan 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be above 350M on 1st Jan 2025

Jimmy Carter will be alive on 1st January 2025

Jimmy Carter will be alive on 31st December 2025

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before March 31

Francis is always Pope

New pope takes name "Francis"

First papal conclave >= 10 ballots

Jimmy Carter

Pope Francis

Alexei Navalny

Iris Apfel

Carl Weathers

Richard Lewis

Damo Suzuki

Kelvin Kiptum

Bob Moore

Akira Toriyama

John Barnett (Boeing Whistleblower)

Daniel Kahneman

Peter Higgs

David Lynch

Dan Wakefield

Kenneth Anger

Ethel Kennedy

Juan Vicente Perez

Steve Albini

William Bill Post (inventor of poptart)

Ozzy Osborne

Rosa Tarlovsky de Roisinblit

Noam Chomsky

Clint Eastwood

Tippi Hendren

Brian Wilson

Alice Munro

Gene Hackman

Roger Penrose

Mel Brooks

Milan Panić

William Shatner

Warren Buffett

Mike Tyson

Julio Iglesias

Dick van Dyke

Nancy Pelosi

Akihito

Bruce Willis

King Charles III

Tomiichi Murayama

Ringo Starr

Joe Biden

Meryl Streep

Alan Greenspan

Mahmoud Abbas

Keith Richards

Thomas Pynchon

Dick Cheney

Bernie Sanders

Roman Polanski

Klaus Schwab

Paul McCartney

Bob Dylan

Howard Stern

@Tumbles

Larry David

Charles E. Grassley

Ban Ki-moon

Slavoj Zizek

Stephen Breyer

Judge Judy Sheindlin

Joe Pesci

Volodymyr Zelensky

Yaroslav Hunka

Anwar Raslan

Raul Castro

Bill Gates

George Bush

Thomas Eugene Creech

James D. Worley

Imelda Marcos

George RR Martin

Al Pacino

Mitch McConnell

Clarence Thomas

Bill Cosby

Matt Groening

Vladimir Putin

Woody Allen

Benjamin Netanyahu

Bill Clinton

David Berkowitz (son of sam)

Dennis Rader (btk)

Ron Jeremy

Dan Schneider

Angela Merkel

Gary Glitter

chris (strutheo)

Donald Trump

Anita Bryant

Toby Keith

Twomad

Sebastián Piñera

Joe Lieberman

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

Donald Trump remains President of USA

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Sudanese Civil War ends

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Any country leaves NATO

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

China invades Taiwan

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

USA leaves NATO

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

YES

Twomad

O. J. Simpson

Anita Bryant

James D. Worley

Thomas Eugene Creech

Raul Castro

William James Pye

Scott Adams (Dilbert Cartoonist)

Yaroslav Hunka

Jose Luis Ricon

Clarence Thomas

Robert Bowers (Pittsburgh synagogue gunman)

Dennis Rader (btk)

Milan Panić

Bill Cosby

Dick Cheney

Mitch McConnell

David Berkowitz (son of sam)

Joe Arpaio

Ron Jeremy

Mike Tyson

King Charles III

Tomiichi Murayama

Gary Glitter

Noam Chomsky

Clint Eastwood

William Bill Post (inventor of poptart)

Mahmoud Abbas

Clarence Thomas

George Bush

Paul McCartney

Brett Kavanaugh

Judge Judy Sheindlin

Vladimir Putin

Donald Trump

Benjamin Netanyahu

Charles E. Grassley

Anwar Raslan

Howard Stern

Alan Greenspan

Samuel Alito

Woody Allen

Roman Polanski

Klaus Schwab

Akihito

Bruce Willis

Slavoj Zizek

Ringo Starr

Joe Biden

Nancy Pelosi

Ban Ki-moon

Keith Richards

Ethel Kennedy

Tippi Hendren

Dan Schneider

Matt Groening

Mel Brooks

William Shatner

Meryl Streep

Thomas Pynchon

Toby Keith

Volodymyr Zelensky

Warren Buffett

Bernie Sanders

Joe Pesci

Al Pacino

Neil Gorsuch

Bill Clinton

Dick van Dyke

Angela Merkel

Stephen Breyer

Pope Francis

Larry David

Bob Dylan

Gene Hackman

George RR Martin

Bill Gates

Amy Coney Barrett

Jimmy Carter

Alexei Navalny

Iris Apfel

Carl Weathers

Richard Lewis

Kelvin Kiptum

Juan Vicente Perez

Bob Moore

Sebastián Piñera

Daniel Kahneman

Jimmy Donaldson (Mr.Beast) (May 7, 1998)

Taylor Swift (Dec 13, 1989)

Dua Lipa (Aug 22, 1995)

Mark Zuckerberg (May 14, 1984)

Ed Sheeran (Feb 17, 1991)

Ariana Grande (Jun 26, 1993)

Shohei Ohtani (Jul 5, 1994)

Drake (Oct 24, 1986)

Sam Bankman-Fried (Mar 6, 1992)

Lionel Messi (Jun 24, 1987)

Cristiano Ronaldo (Feb 5, 1985)

Rihanna (Feb 20, 1988)

Patrick Mahomes (Sep 17, 1995)

Travis Kelce (Oct 5, 1989)

Usain Bolt (Aug 21 1986)

Beyonce (Sep 4, 1981)

Rafael Nadal (Jun 3, 1986)

Lebron James (Dec 30, 1984)

Michael Phelps (Jun 30, 1985)

Sam Altman (Apr 22, 1985)

Serena Williams (Sep 26 1981)

Jeff Bezos (Jan 12, 1964)

Lil Wayne (Sep 27, 1982)

Elizabeth Holmes (Feb 3, 1984)

Britney Spears (Dec 2, 1981)

Tom Brady (Aug 3, 1977)

Emmanuel Macron (Dec 21, 1977)

Venus Williams (Jun 17, 1980)

Roger Federer (Aug 8, 1981)

Will Smith (Sep 25, 1968)

Shou Chew (Jan 1, 1983)

Neil Gorsuch (Aug 29, 1967)

Leonardo DiCaprio (Nov 11, 1974)

Ron Desantis (Sep 14, 1978)

Ryan Reynolds (Oct 23, 1976)

Ketanji Brown Jackson (Sep 14, 1970)

Kamala Harris (Oct 20, 1964)

Christopher Nolan (Jul 30, 1970)

Hakeem Jeffries (Aug 4, 1970)

Satya Nadella (Aug 19, 1967)

Gavin Newsom (Oct 10, 1967)

Nikki Haley (Jan 20, 1972)

Tiger Woods (Dec 30, 1975)

Larry Page (Mar 26, 1973)

Michelle Obama (Jan 17, 1964)

Amy Coney Barrett (Jan 28, 1972)

Brad Pitt (Dec 18, 1963)

Jennifer Lopez (Jul 24, 1969)

Oprah Winfrey (Jan 29, 1954)

John G. Roberts (Jan 27, 1955)

Jensen Huang (Feb 17, 1963)

Brett Kavanaugh (Feb 12, 1965)

JK Rowling (Jul 31, 1965)

Elena Kagan (Apr 28, 1960)

Eliezer Yudkowsky (Sep 11, 1979)

Mike Pence (Jun 7, 1959)

Wayne Gretzsky (Jan 26, 1961)

Mary Barra (Dec 24, 1961)

Erdogan (Feb 26, 1954)

Barack Obama (Aug 4, 1961)

Snoop Dogg (Oct 20, 1971)

Chuck Norris (Mar 10, 1940)

Xi Jinping (Jun 15, 1953)

Kim Jong Un (Jan 8, 1984)

Samuel Alito (Apr 1, 1950)

Elon Musk (Jun 28, 1971)

Clarence Thomas (Jun 23, 1948)

Geoffrey Hinton (Dec 6, 1947)

Volodymyr Zelensky (Jan 25, 1978)

Sonia Sotomayor (Jun 25, 1954)

Mohammed Bin Salman (Aug 31, 1985)

Bernard Arnault (Mar 5, 1949)

Hillary Clinton (Oct 26, 1947)

George W Bush (Jul 6, 1946)

Ted Cruz (Dec 22, 1970)

Bill Clinton (Aug 19, 1946)

Benjamin Netanyahu (Oct 21, 1949)

Steven Spielberg (Dec 18, 1946)

Stephen King (Sep 21, 1947)

Quentin Tarantino (Mar 27, 1963)

Paul McCartney (Jun 18, 1942)

Michael Jordan (Feb 17, 1963)

Tom Hanks (Jul 9, 1956)

Michael Bloomberg (Feb 14, 1942)

Bill Gates (Oct 28, 1955)

Mitch McConnell (Feb 20, 1942)

Donald Trump (Jun 14, 1946)

Vladimir Putin (Oct 7, 1952)

Joe Biden (Nov 20, 1942)

Jill Biden (Jun 3, 1951)

Martin Scorsese (Nov 17, 1942)

Rudy Giuliani (May 28, 1944)

Nancy Pelosi (Mar 26, 1940)

Dick Van Dyke (Dec 13, 1925)

King Charles (Nov 14, 1948)

Mel brooks (Jun 28, 1926)

Warren Buffet (Aug 30, 1930)

Ali Khamenei (Apr 19, 1939)

Jimmy Carter (Oct 1, 1924)

Yahya Sinwar (Oct 29 1962)

Bernie Madoff

China launches military drills around Taiwan

Warnings from Western intelligence agencies about Chinese invasion preparations

Submarine cables around Taiwan are damaged

China engages in a partial/total naval blockade of Taiwan

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Taiwan's military

A western think-tank warns about a Chinese naval build-up

Major cyberattack on Taiwanese infrastructure

At least one western country charters a fight to evacuate its citizens from Taiwan

China shoots down a Taiwanese aircraft

At least one western country tells its citizens to leave China

A Chinese entity releases a frontier AI model

Taiwan revokes visa of pro-Beijing influencer

Taiwan shoots down a Chinese aircraft

China issues new warning to its citizens about travelling to the US

China declares a no-fly zone over Taiwan

China switches its industrial overcapacity over to military production

China fires missiles/rockets/artillery/railguns over Taiwan

A military ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)

Reports that China is building new concentration camps

A popular Chinese movie is released containing a scene with an amphibious assault

Chinese government tells large numbers of its citizens to return to China

Chinese soldiers are involved in active combat outside of Chinese territory (excluding UN peacekeeping)

A US company has a market cap of at least 5 trillion dollars at any point in the 12-month window

Significant damage to low-earth orbit satellites (compared to per-satellite damage level in 2024) -- including but not limited to hostile action and kessler syndrome

Reports of drone activity over US military bases in the Pacific

Major cyberattack on Japanese infrastructure

A Taiwanese politician dies in suspicious circumstances

Major cyberattack on South Korean infrastructure

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in the US military

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Japan's military

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in South Korea's military

the US implements tariffs of at least 25% on Taiwanese semiconductors (implemented at any point in the 12-month window)

A US semiconductor facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage

At least three civilian flights to Taiwan are diverted to land in China

Significant constitutional crisis in the US

Nasdaq is at 60% of its previous peak at any time in the 12-month period

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Australia's military

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in India's military

A civilian ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)

The US implements significant travel restrictions on Chinese citizens (compared to 2024)

Reports of a major corruption scandal involving a Taiwanese/US/Japanese/South-Korean semiconductor company

Oil prices are at >=100 dollars a barrel at any time in the 12-month window

Reports that a large scale cyberattack has physically damaged AI chips in the West

Credible reports in Western news media about activity relating to biolabs in North Korea

1 million humanoid robots have been manufactured

50k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine

A popular Western podcaster/youtuber is prevented from leaving a country by China/Russia

the US implements tariffs of at least 50% on most imports from China

A US movie with a budget of at least 30 million dollars is released containing a US vs China war scene

The US bombs Iran

Attack on a US military asset in the Pacific

A Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage

An apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target in Taiwan

A human walks on the Moon

At least three prominent Taiwanese AI researchers disappear

Reports that the US has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations

Reports that China has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations

The US reduces sanctions on Russia

Ukraine loses the Donbass region in a ceasefire/peace deal with Russia

The US attempts to expand its territory by force

Reports of suspicious electromagnetic phenomena in the upper atmosphere

Elon Musk is pardoned

China arrests / takes hostage at least 100 westerners (non-taiwanese) on spurious grounds

The US attempts to expand its territory by economic coercion

Attempted coup in Taiwan

the US implements tariffs of at least 75% on most imports from China

Donald Trump is replaced as the US's leader

The US withdraws from NATO

Vladimir Putin is replaced as Russia's leader

100k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine

A NATO soldier on active duty is killed by Russia

Russia attacks a NATO member (excluding attacks on submarine cables)

AGI is achieved by a non-Chinese entity

North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon

The US military performs combat operations in Mexico

Xi Jinping is replaced as China's leader

India detonates a nuclear weapon

Russia cedes territory to China

Vladivostok is not under Russia's control

Ukraine signs a deal with the US giving it access to its minerals

Zelensky is replaced as the leader of Ukraine

Reports in western media about a Taiwanese businessperson falling out of the window of a tall building

Taiwanese political leader dies in small plane accident (w/out being attacked by kinetic or other physical weapon)

Chinese soldiers present in Europe in official combat roles (including peacekeeping)

An AI datacenter is hit by a significant EMP blast

China executes at least 5 citizens of western countries

AGI is achieved by a Chinese entity

A major pandemic occurs

Attempted coup in Russia

Attempted coup in the Phillipines

The US military performs combat operations on Palestinian territory

The US detonates a nuclear weapon

The US attacks a NATO member

Tulsi Gabbard is arrested on treason charges

A nuclear weapon is detonated

Attempted coup in China

Japan takes control of the Kuril Islands

Successful revolution in Iran

Russia detonates a nuclear weapon

Elon Musk is arrested on treason charges

Attempted coup in the US

Strong evidence supporting the covid lab-leak theory emerges

China detonates a nuclear weapon

Japan detonates a nuclear weapon

South Korea detonates a nuclear weapon

Australia detonates a nuclear weapon

Other

Macron & Mistral

Netanyahu & GPT

Trump & Grok

Kim Jong Un & Grok

Zelensky & Claude

Trump & GPT

Biden & Claude

Biden & Gemini

Putin & Yandex GPT

Xi Jinping & Ernie Bot

Modi & GPT

Volodymyr Zelensky

Other

Valerii Zaluzhnyi

Petro Poroshenko

No expectation at all. Everything is still open/ not answered afterwards

It results in a personal negotiation between Trump and Zelensky

Further good economic coworking between US and Russia.

Putin finally is given confidence by Trump to get the occupied regions of Ukraine.

Trump strengthen the US/European Partnership and leaves a strong impression against Russia

An anti-corruption protest with at least 10,000 attendees will take place in a Ukrainian city in July 2025

Ukraine will receive a lower score in the 2026 edition of the Corruption Perceptions Index than in the 2024 edition

The law will be repealed or annulled in full by the end of 2025

Volodymyr Zelensky's trust rating will fall below 50% in a poll published by KIIS, Rating or Razumkov in 2025

The New York Times will publish an editorial criticising Volodymyr Zelensky by the end of August 2025

The Ukrainian parliament's trust rating will fall below 10% in a poll published by Razumkov in 2025

The European Commission will issue a formal statement expressing opposition to the law in July 2025