Wagner Basílio News
Prediction markets for Wagner Basílio
Conditional on a MAGA Republican being elected US President, will NATO be attacked by Russian-allied forces in 2025?
Dec 26, 4:34 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM
6.72%chance
332356
OptionVotes
1807
890
Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
67.69%chance
191382
OptionVotes
1299
799
Was the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?
Jun 26, 4:36 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
7.9%chance
19967
OptionVotes
1525
902
Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030?
Jun 26, 12:33 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM
39.89%chance
27644
OptionVotes
317
100
Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
35.72%chance
13340
OptionVotes
1164
891
Will space governance / space colonization get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 7:20 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
12.75%chance
8304
OptionVotes
489
177
Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
70.79%chance
14181
OptionVotes
1013
986
Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 29, 2:14 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
70.97%chance
9145
OptionVotes
334
227
Will mental-health / subjective-wellbeing interventions in LMIC get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 6:06 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
64.69%chance
5110
OptionVotes
356
226
When violence between Russia and Ukraine formally ends, will Russia attack a non OTAN/NATO neighbour within 2 years?
Feb 22, 12:05 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM
43.42%chance
590
OptionVotes
298
264
10B valuation for company founded by a 2023 Thiel Fellow by 2030
Mar 23, 5:49 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
33.41%chance
323
OptionVotes
130
96
Will the Patient Philanthropy Fund grow to $10m+ before 2030?
Oct 30, 6:22 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
54.75%chance
15
OptionVotes
150
140