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Prediction markets for Wagner
Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
72.55%chance
251885
OptionVotes
1481
722
Was the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?
Jun 26, 4:36 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
7.38%chance
201067
OptionVotes
1625
894
Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030?
Jun 26, 12:33 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM
30.88%chance
31773
OptionVotes
296
139
Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
39.03%chance
15395
OptionVotes
1072
946
Will Charter Cities / Affinity Cities / Network States get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 29, 3:11 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
26.9%chance
10282
OptionVotes
409
180
Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
70.23%chance
16261
OptionVotes
994
994
Will climate geoengineering get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 30, 7:29 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
66.48%chance
10195
OptionVotes
362
198
Will approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 29, 3:04 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
43.34%chance
7146
OptionVotes
279
171
Will human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 6:26 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
52.08%chance
8132
OptionVotes
265
178
Will Georgism (aka land value taxes) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 30, 6:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
29.01%chance
669
OptionVotes
242
153
Will "impact markets" distribute more than $10m of grant funding before 2030?
Nov 1, 10:00 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
73.01%chance
442
OptionVotes
245
182
1B valuation for company founded by a 2023 Thiel Fellow by 2030
May 16, 4:34 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
54.79%chance
432
OptionVotes
123
108