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Top stories

Franz Wagner and Dennis Schroder Lead Germany to EuroBasket 2025 Wins Over Montenegro and Sweden

Franz Wagner and Dennis Schroder Lead Germany to EuroBasket 2025 Wins Over Montenegro and Sweden

Authors

4

8 months ago

Prediction markets for Wagner

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

68.62%chance

211582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1331

784

Was the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?

Jun 26, 4:36 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.9%chance

19967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1525

902

SSPX Bishops to be consecrated July 01, 2026

Feb 13, 8:25 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

7880

OptionProbability

Fr Daniel Themann

Fr Christian Bouchacourt

Fr John McFarland

Fr Davide Pagliarani

Fr Goldade

Fr John Fullerton

Fr Alexander Wiseman

Fr Benoît de Jorna

Fr Wagner

86

70

46

44

28

17

14

14

9

Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030?

Jun 26, 12:33 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

31.84%chance

30768

OptionVotes

NO

YES

298

134

Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

35.72%chance

13340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

891

Will Charter Cities / Affinity Cities / Network States get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 3:11 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

26.9%chance

10282

OptionVotes

YES

NO

409

180

Will the revolution be televised?

Jul 25, 1:43 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

44.52%chance

5260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

87

Will farmed-invertebrate welfare (shrimp, insects, octopi, etc) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 2:49 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

75.86%chance

10207

OptionVotes

NO

YES

399

199

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Will approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 3:04 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

43.34%chance

7146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

279

171

Will stable-totalitarianism prevention get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 2:30 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

53.7%chance

7130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

221

Will mental-health / subjective-wellbeing interventions in LMIC get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:06 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

64.69%chance

5110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

356

226

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