Wagner News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Wagner
Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
72.55%chance
251885
OptionVotes
1481
722
Was the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?
Jun 26, 4:36 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
7.38%chance
201067
OptionVotes
1625
894
Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030?
Jun 26, 12:33 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM
30.88%chance
31773
OptionVotes
296
139
Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
39.03%chance
15395
OptionVotes
1072
946
Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 29, 2:14 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
72.85%chance
12265
OptionVotes
354
219
Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
70.23%chance
16261
OptionVotes
994
994
OptionVotes
90
87
Will climate geoengineering get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 30, 7:29 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
66.48%chance
10195
OptionVotes
362
198
Will stable-totalitarianism prevention get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 2:30 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
53.7%chance
7130
OptionVotes
227
221
When violence between Russia and Ukraine formally ends, will Russia attack a non OTAN/NATO neighbour within 2 years?
Feb 22, 12:05 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM
43.42%chance
590
OptionVotes
1018
984
Will Georgism (aka land value taxes) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 30, 6:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
29.01%chance
669
OptionVotes
242
153
Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
59.64%chance
643
OptionVotes
223
191