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Top stories

Franz Wagner and Dennis Schroder Lead Germany to EuroBasket 2025 Wins Over Montenegro and Sweden

Franz Wagner and Dennis Schroder Lead Germany to EuroBasket 2025 Wins Over Montenegro and Sweden

Authors

4

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Wagner

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

72.55%chance

251885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1481

722

Was the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?

Jun 26, 4:36 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.38%chance

201067

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1625

894

Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030?

Jun 26, 12:33 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

30.88%chance

31773

OptionVotes

NO

YES

296

139

Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

39.03%chance

15395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1072

946

Will Charter Cities / Affinity Cities / Network States get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 3:11 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

26.9%chance

10282

OptionVotes

YES

NO

409

180

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.23%chance

16261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

994

Will climate geoengineering get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 7:29 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

66.48%chance

10195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

362

198

Will approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 3:04 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

43.34%chance

7146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

279

171

Will human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:26 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

52.08%chance

8132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

265

178

Will Georgism (aka land value taxes) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

29.01%chance

669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

242

153

Will "impact markets" distribute more than $10m of grant funding before 2030?

Nov 1, 10:00 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

73.01%chance

442

OptionVotes

NO

YES

245

182

1B valuation for company founded by a 2023 Thiel Fellow by 2030

May 16, 4:34 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

54.79%chance

432

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

108

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