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Top stories

Franz Wagner and Dennis Schroder Lead Germany to EuroBasket 2025 Wins Over Montenegro and Sweden

Franz Wagner and Dennis Schroder Lead Germany to EuroBasket 2025 Wins Over Montenegro and Sweden

Authors

4

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Wagner

Best Actor nominees? (2026 Oscars)

Oct 6, 6:18 PMJan 21, 11:59 PM

2422897

OptionProbability

Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another

Timothée Chalamet - Marty Supreme

Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent

Michael B. Jordan - Sinners

Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon

Joel Edgarton - Train Dreams

George Clooney - Jay Kelly

Jesse Plemons - Bugonia

Dwayne Johnson - The Smashing Machine

Daniel Day-Lewis - Anemone

Paul Mescal - The History of Sound

Jeremy Allen White - Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

94

93

82

65

58

40

28

21

20

10

10

9

Conditional on a MAGA Republican being elected US President, will NATO be attacked by Russian-allied forces in 2025?

Dec 26, 4:34 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

6.53%chance

342406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1857

886

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

71.78%chance

201532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1449

734

Was the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?

Jun 26, 4:36 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.9%chance

19967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1525

902

Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030?

Jun 26, 12:33 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

39.89%chance

27644

OptionVotes

NO

YES

317

100

Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

35.72%chance

13340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

891

Will civilizational-preservation bunkers get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:42 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.15%chance

7311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

228

200

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Will human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:26 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

54.27%chance

8122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

275

169

Will S-risk prevention get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 3:56 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

60.23%chance

6111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

222

153

1B valuation for company founded by a 2023 Thiel Fellow by 2030

May 16, 4:34 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

54.79%chance

432

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

108

Will the Patient Philanthropy Fund grow to $10m+ before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:22 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

54.75%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

140

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