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Top stories

Iowa Democrat J.D. Scholten Ends 2026 Senate Bid, Backs Josh Turek

Iowa Democrat J.D. Scholten Ends 2026 Senate Bid, Backs Josh Turek

Authors

5

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Wahls

Will the National Guard kill at least 10 protestors by end of 2026?

Apr 28, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:29 PM

6.29%chance

4341535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

38618

2593

Will it become illegal to move >$50K/year out of the United States?

Apr 28, 7:34 PMJan 1, 8:33 PM

4.56%chance

2539768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

45761

2187

Will the US start conscription / a draft?

Apr 28, 9:25 PMFeb 1, 10:25 PM

10.53%chance

2632899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29177

3435

Will there be nationwide price controls or rationing of consumer goods by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:28 PMJan 1, 10:27 PM

13.55%chance

3428895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25256

3959

Will the U.S. Supreme Court hold Trump or a member of his Cabinet in contempt?

Apr 28, 7:36 PMFeb 28, 8:36 PM

8.23%chance

2626595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33403

2994

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

18.05%chance

3920302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21309

4693

Will there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

14.01%chance

3519387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24774

4036

Will Trump cheer on a violent attack on a public intellectual?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMFeb 2, 8:37 PM

20.3%chance

1214238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19816

5046

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

38.42%chance

227750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12660

7899

In 2026, who will Iowa elect to the U.S. Senate?

Jun 20, 4:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

165215

OptionProbability

Ashley Hinson

Josh Turek

Zach Wahls

Jim Carlin

Nathan Sage

J. D. Scholten

Other

Joni Ernst

Joshua Smith

54

23

18

1

1

1

1

0

0

2026 Democratic nominee for US Senate in Iowa?

Aug 19, 8:30 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

102833

OptionProbability

Zach Wahls

Josh Turek

Jackie Norris

Nathan Sage

Other

50

47

1

1

1

If Zach Wahls is the Democratic nominee, will he win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

Feb 9, 6:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.98%chance

498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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