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Prediction markets for Waters

Will NASA's mission Artemis III find water and use it on the Moon?

Sep 13, 9:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.37%chance

338438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5985

614

Will a GLP-1 receptor agonist (Ozempic-like drug) be added to public water supplies in the United States by 2075?

Oct 8, 10:12 PMOct 16, 5:59 AM

10.31%chance

114231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2949

339

By 2050, will humans pump significant quantities of ocean water towards the poles to reduce leap seconds?

Mar 24, 5:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.75%chance

443891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2730

902

Will Roger Waters receive a prison sentence for supporting Palestine Action?

Aug 4, 9:24 AMJul 5, 9:17 AM

14.39%chance

182219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2439

410

By 2050, will humans pump significant quantities of ocean water onto Antarctica to reduce sea levels?

Mar 24, 1:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.48%chance

181134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1849

831

Will the overall claim that low flow showers cause more net water use hold up thru mid 2026?

Mar 9, 12:45 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

49.05%chance

36966

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1108

880

Will NASA's Europa Clipper confirm liquid water under the ice?

Oct 18, 1:02 AMOct 15, 3:59 AM

75.44%chance

9859

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1753

571

Will any water be mined on the Moon by 2030?

Apr 23, 5:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20%chance

16735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1414

856

Will "Shallow Water is Dangerous Too" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 20, 8:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10%chance

5522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1389

948

Miami-Dade WASD ceases adding fluoride to its drinking water by 2027

Mar 11, 9:00 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.91%chance

3500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1302

768

Will the paper be reproduced by 2028?: Transduction of DNA information through water and electromagnetic waves

Mar 23, 7:58 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

15.37%chance

5197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

309

99

Will Corpus Christi "run out of water" by the end of 2030?

Apr 23, 8:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.08%chance

3172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1126

888

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