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Prediction markets for Weinzierl

Will we know if gravity is fundamentally quantum by the end of 2030?

Jan 1, 2:43 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

19.78%chance

474562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

991

963

Will Python be replaced as the go-to programming language for AI development by the end of 2040?

Jan 5, 8:35 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

83.68%chance

463528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1811

685

Is gravity fundamentally quantum?

Jan 2, 8:52 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

83.3%chance

352733

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1797

739

Will a Large Language Model be listed as an author on a peer-reviewed paper by the end of 2025?

Dec 18, 4:00 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

33.59%chance

382199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1424

629

Will Type 1 Diabetes be cured by the end of 2040?

Dec 22, 3:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

51.01%chance

231215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1188

737

Will the nature of dark matter be known by 2030?

Jan 2, 9:00 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

18.05%chance

241211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

976

Will an AI provider be sued due to the actions taken by their AI by the end of 2025?

Dec 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52.92%chance

181002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1269

463

Will the Navier-Stokes problem be solved by 2030?

Jan 2, 9:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

35.11%chance

29921

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

735

Will artificial intelligence be directly tied to an unemployment rise in the USA by the end of 2025?

Dec 17, 7:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

23.26%chance

22790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

978

Will the matter-antimatter asymmetry problem be considered solved by the end of 2040?

Jan 3, 3:03 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.51%chance

17554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

955

Are naked singularities from spinning black holes physically possible?

Jan 2, 9:24 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

23.46%chance

15512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1042

786

Will a Large Language Model be deployed on a mission to land on a moon or planet by the end of 2030?

Dec 18, 3:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.96%chance

17440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

944

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